Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a maximum temperature near 30–31°C on September 17, driven by typical late wet-season conditions with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity that limit strong daytime heating. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows afternoon highs tempered by cloud cover and potential rainfall, consistent with historical September averages around 30°C and low likelihood of extreme outliers. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress peaks if showers arrive early, versus clearer periods allowing brief rises toward 32°C; steering winds and moisture from the monsoon trough add uncertainty to exact resolution thresholds. Trader distribution across 28–32°C reflects these forecast spreads and model variability ahead of the final observational reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 17?
32°C 35%
31°C 31%
34°C 18%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
5%
29°C
15%
30°C
11%
31°C
31%
32°C
35%
33°C
14%
34°C
18%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 35%
31°C 31%
34°C 18%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$7 Vol.
11%
31°C
$0 Vol.
31%
32°C
$31 Vol.
35%
33°C
$0 Vol.
14%
34°C
$0 Vol.
18%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a maximum temperature near 30–31°C on September 17, driven by typical late wet-season conditions with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity that limit strong daytime heating. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows afternoon highs tempered by cloud cover and potential rainfall, consistent with historical September averages around 30°C and low likelihood of extreme outliers. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress peaks if showers arrive early, versus clearer periods allowing brief rises toward 32°C; steering winds and moisture from the monsoon trough add uncertainty to exact resolution thresholds. Trader distribution across 28–32°C reflects these forecast spreads and model variability ahead of the final observational reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$266End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a maximum temperature near 30–31°C on September 17, driven by typical late wet-season conditions with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity that limit strong daytime heating. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows afternoon highs tempered by cloud cover and potential rainfall, consistent with historical September averages around 30°C and low likelihood of extreme outliers. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress peaks if showers arrive early, versus clearer periods allowing brief rises toward 32°C; steering winds and moisture from the monsoon trough add uncertainty to exact resolution thresholds. Trader distribution across 28–32°C reflects these forecast spreads and model variability ahead of the final observational reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$266End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a maximum temperature near 30–31°C on September 17, driven by typical late wet-season conditions with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity that limit strong daytime heating. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows afternoon highs tempered by cloud cover and potential rainfall, consistent with historical September averages around 30°C and low likelihood of extreme outliers. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress peaks if showers arrive early, versus clearer periods allowing brief rises toward 32°C; steering winds and moisture from the monsoon trough add uncertainty to exact resolution thresholds. Trader distribution across 28–32°C reflects these forecast spreads and model variability ahead of the final observational reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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