Forecast models from NOAA and regional meteorological services indicate a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms on September 17, which could increase overnight cloud cover and limit radiational cooling, supporting minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Persistent southeast winds around 5–10 mph and high humidity levels near 70–85% further moderate overnight lows by enhancing mixing in the boundary layer. Current guidance points to a calendar-day low near 78–81°F, with slight variations across model runs arising from differences in storm timing and coverage. This scientific uncertainty—typical for short-range temperature forecasts near 45–55% implied probabilities—explains the closely matched leading outcomes, as traders weigh the potential for clearer skies versus convective activity when assessing resolution thresholds. Updated National Weather Service briefings and hourly model runs ahead of the 17th will likely refine these estimates.