Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime temperatures on September 16, with official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models converging on a maximum of 23–24°C. Persistent cloud cover limits solar insolation while advection of cooler maritime air and evaporative cooling from widespread precipitation further cap heating. This places the expected peak well below the late-summer climatological average near 27°C. Trader consensus, reflected in nearly equal implied probabilities for 23°C and 24°C, mirrors the narrow forecast spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions under stratiform rain. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official station reading will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
24°C 38%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
NEW
$17,527 Vol.
NEW
$17,527 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
20%
24°C
38%
25°C
26%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 38%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
NEW
$17,527 Vol.
NEW
$17,527 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$212 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$487 Vol.
2%
22°C
$740 Vol.
5%
23°C
$2,303 Vol.
20%
24°C
$3,012 Vol.
38%
25°C
$4,575 Vol.
26%
26°C
$2,642 Vol.
6%
27°C
$656 Vol.
2%
28°C
$967 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,493 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime temperatures on September 16, with official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models converging on a maximum of 23–24°C. Persistent cloud cover limits solar insolation while advection of cooler maritime air and evaporative cooling from widespread precipitation further cap heating. This places the expected peak well below the late-summer climatological average near 27°C. Trader consensus, reflected in nearly equal implied probabilities for 23°C and 24°C, mirrors the narrow forecast spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions under stratiform rain. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official station reading will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,527End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime temperatures on September 16, with official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models converging on a maximum of 23–24°C. Persistent cloud cover limits solar insolation while advection of cooler maritime air and evaporative cooling from widespread precipitation further cap heating. This places the expected peak well below the late-summer climatological average near 27°C. Trader consensus, reflected in nearly equal implied probabilities for 23°C and 24°C, mirrors the narrow forecast spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions under stratiform rain. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official station reading will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,527End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime temperatures on September 16, with official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models converging on a maximum of 23–24°C. Persistent cloud cover limits solar insolation while advection of cooler maritime air and evaporative cooling from widespread precipitation further cap heating. This places the expected peak well below the late-summer climatological average near 27°C. Trader consensus, reflected in nearly equal implied probabilities for 23°C and 24°C, mirrors the narrow forecast spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions under stratiform rain. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official station reading will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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