Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum temperature range of 27–32°C for September 15, with sunny periods, easterly to northeasterly winds of force 3–5, and a chance of one or two showers. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33°C, where 32°C leads at 38% implied probability. Mid-September climatology shows average highs near 30–31°C under similar anticyclonic influence over Guangdong, with afternoon heating tempered by humidity near 65–95% and possible convective activity. Model outputs vary modestly between 28–32°C depending on cloud cover and wind strength, creating the narrow spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes. No major tropical systems are currently indicated to alter steering patterns or intensify conditions before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
32°C 38%
31°C 32%
35°C or higher 19%
33°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
14%
31°C
32%
32°C
38%
33°C
18%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
19%
32°C 38%
31°C 32%
35°C or higher 19%
33°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$6 Vol.
1%
27°C
$6 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3 Vol.
1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
6%
30°C
$10 Vol.
14%
31°C
$19 Vol.
32%
32°C
$36 Vol.
38%
33°C
$81 Vol.
18%
34°C
$49 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$10 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum temperature range of 27–32°C for September 15, with sunny periods, easterly to northeasterly winds of force 3–5, and a chance of one or two showers. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33°C, where 32°C leads at 38% implied probability. Mid-September climatology shows average highs near 30–31°C under similar anticyclonic influence over Guangdong, with afternoon heating tempered by humidity near 65–95% and possible convective activity. Model outputs vary modestly between 28–32°C depending on cloud cover and wind strength, creating the narrow spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes. No major tropical systems are currently indicated to alter steering patterns or intensify conditions before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$240End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum temperature range of 27–32°C for September 15, with sunny periods, easterly to northeasterly winds of force 3–5, and a chance of one or two showers. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33°C, where 32°C leads at 38% implied probability. Mid-September climatology shows average highs near 30–31°C under similar anticyclonic influence over Guangdong, with afternoon heating tempered by humidity near 65–95% and possible convective activity. Model outputs vary modestly between 28–32°C depending on cloud cover and wind strength, creating the narrow spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes. No major tropical systems are currently indicated to alter steering patterns or intensify conditions before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$240End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum temperature range of 27–32°C for September 15, with sunny periods, easterly to northeasterly winds of force 3–5, and a chance of one or two showers. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33°C, where 32°C leads at 38% implied probability. Mid-September climatology shows average highs near 30–31°C under similar anticyclonic influence over Guangdong, with afternoon heating tempered by humidity near 65–95% and possible convective activity. Model outputs vary modestly between 28–32°C depending on cloud cover and wind strength, creating the narrow spread between 31°C and 33°C outcomes. No major tropical systems are currently indicated to alter steering patterns or intensify conditions before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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