National Weather Service forecast models and ensemble guidance point to a modest marine layer influence keeping daytime highs in Los Angeles near 76–79°F on September 15, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those ranges. Sea-surface temperatures along the coast remain near seasonal norms while weak onshore flow and a shallow inversion limit afternoon warming, preventing stronger heating that would push readings into the low 80s. Historical mid-September climatology shows average highs near 82°F, so current conditions reflect a slight cooling bias from recent coastal stratus. Key uncertainties include the exact timing of marine-layer clearing and any model spread in boundary-layer mixing; updated NWS runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine the final high before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 15?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 15?
76-77°F 38%
78-79°F 31%
74-75°F 13%
80-81°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 38%
78-79°F 31%
74-75°F 13%
80-81°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
67°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$40 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$53 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$12 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$1,631 Vol.
13%
76-77°F
$1,011 Vol.
38%
78-79°F
$1,030 Vol.
31%
80-81°F
$141 Vol.
10%
82-83°F
$64 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$211 Vol.
1%
86°F or higher
$212 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecast models and ensemble guidance point to a modest marine layer influence keeping daytime highs in Los Angeles near 76–79°F on September 15, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those ranges. Sea-surface temperatures along the coast remain near seasonal norms while weak onshore flow and a shallow inversion limit afternoon warming, preventing stronger heating that would push readings into the low 80s. Historical mid-September climatology shows average highs near 82°F, so current conditions reflect a slight cooling bias from recent coastal stratus. Key uncertainties include the exact timing of marine-layer clearing and any model spread in boundary-layer mixing; updated NWS runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine the final high before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$4,409End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecast models and ensemble guidance point to a modest marine layer influence keeping daytime highs in Los Angeles near 76–79°F on September 15, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those ranges. Sea-surface temperatures along the coast remain near seasonal norms while weak onshore flow and a shallow inversion limit afternoon warming, preventing stronger heating that would push readings into the low 80s. Historical mid-September climatology shows average highs near 82°F, so current conditions reflect a slight cooling bias from recent coastal stratus. Key uncertainties include the exact timing of marine-layer clearing and any model spread in boundary-layer mixing; updated NWS runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine the final high before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,409End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecast models and ensemble guidance point to a modest marine layer influence keeping daytime highs in Los Angeles near 76–79°F on September 15, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those ranges. Sea-surface temperatures along the coast remain near seasonal norms while weak onshore flow and a shallow inversion limit afternoon warming, preventing stronger heating that would push readings into the low 80s. Historical mid-September climatology shows average highs near 82°F, so current conditions reflect a slight cooling bias from recent coastal stratus. Key uncertainties include the exact timing of marine-layer clearing and any model spread in boundary-layer mixing; updated NWS runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine the final high before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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