Trader consensus favors a 70-73°F high in San Francisco on September 17, with 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins leading at 43.5% and 35.5% respectively. Official NWS guidance and model runs point to morning marine layer and patchy drizzle under light southerly flow, followed by gradual clearing and onshore westerlies that limit afternoon warming to the low-to-mid 70s at measurement sites like SFO. Differentiation between the top bins hinges on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation and peak insolation, with historical September averages near 71°F providing context. No major heat advection or offshore flow has developed to push outcomes higher, keeping lower bins at single digits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 5%
NEW
$11,411 Vol.
NEW
$11,411 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
44%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 5%
NEW
$11,411 Vol.
NEW
$11,411 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
$269 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$149 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$122 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$2,447 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$925 Vol.
44%
72-73°F
$3,440 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$940 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$159 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$228 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$185 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$2,550 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 70-73°F high in San Francisco on September 17, with 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins leading at 43.5% and 35.5% respectively. Official NWS guidance and model runs point to morning marine layer and patchy drizzle under light southerly flow, followed by gradual clearing and onshore westerlies that limit afternoon warming to the low-to-mid 70s at measurement sites like SFO. Differentiation between the top bins hinges on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation and peak insolation, with historical September averages near 71°F providing context. No major heat advection or offshore flow has developed to push outcomes higher, keeping lower bins at single digits.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,411End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 70-73°F high in San Francisco on September 17, with 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins leading at 43.5% and 35.5% respectively. Official NWS guidance and model runs point to morning marine layer and patchy drizzle under light southerly flow, followed by gradual clearing and onshore westerlies that limit afternoon warming to the low-to-mid 70s at measurement sites like SFO. Differentiation between the top bins hinges on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation and peak insolation, with historical September averages near 71°F providing context. No major heat advection or offshore flow has developed to push outcomes higher, keeping lower bins at single digits.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,411End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 70-73°F high in San Francisco on September 17, with 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins leading at 43.5% and 35.5% respectively. Official NWS guidance and model runs point to morning marine layer and patchy drizzle under light southerly flow, followed by gradual clearing and onshore westerlies that limit afternoon warming to the low-to-mid 70s at measurement sites like SFO. Differentiation between the top bins hinges on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation and peak insolation, with historical September averages near 71°F providing context. No major heat advection or offshore flow has developed to push outcomes higher, keeping lower bins at single digits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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