**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain possible, aligning with the market’s strong emphasis on those outcomes (28°C at 61.5%, 29°C at 21.5%).** Official and model-derived forecasts, including Chinese meteorological summaries and international agencies such as the Met Office, consistently project daytime maxima near 28–29°C, with overnight lows around 22–24°C. Light easterly to northeasterly winds, moderate humidity (around 60%), and partial cloud cover are expected to limit stronger heating, while any brief rain or increased cloudiness could cap the peak slightly below recent days’ readings. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical highs in the upper 20s°C during this period, providing context for the current setup as autumn cooling progresses without major heatwave or cold-front influences. Model agreement is reasonably tight around this range, with only modest spread that explains the secondary probabilities on 27°C and 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance and observed trends from September 16 (when highs reached ~29–30°C under clearer conditions) more heavily than longer-term averages. Updated model runs or official briefings on the morning of the 17th could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or cloud thickness shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 17?
28°C 63%
29°C 22%
27°C 15%
30°C 4%
NEW
$20,331 Vol.
NEW
$20,331 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
15%
28°C
63%
29°C
22%
30°C
4%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 63%
29°C 22%
27°C 15%
30°C 4%
NEW
$20,331 Vol.
NEW
$20,331 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
$199 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,087 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7,572 Vol.
15%
28°C
$3,893 Vol.
63%
29°C
$3,565 Vol.
22%
30°C
$1,354 Vol.
4%
31°C
$1,286 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$675 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$308 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$196 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain possible, aligning with the market’s strong emphasis on those outcomes (28°C at 61.5%, 29°C at 21.5%).**
Official and model-derived forecasts, including Chinese meteorological summaries and international agencies such as the Met Office, consistently project daytime maxima near 28–29°C, with overnight lows around 22–24°C. Light easterly to northeasterly winds, moderate humidity (around 60%), and partial cloud cover are expected to limit stronger heating, while any brief rain or increased cloudiness could cap the peak slightly below recent days’ readings. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical highs in the upper 20s°C during this period, providing context for the current setup as autumn cooling progresses without major heatwave or cold-front influences.
Model agreement is reasonably tight around this range, with only modest spread that explains the secondary probabilities on 27°C and 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance and observed trends from September 16 (when highs reached ~29–30°C under clearer conditions) more heavily than longer-term averages. Updated model runs or official briefings on the morning of the 17th could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or cloud thickness shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$20,331End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain possible, aligning with the market’s strong emphasis on those outcomes (28°C at 61.5%, 29°C at 21.5%).**
Official and model-derived forecasts, including Chinese meteorological summaries and international agencies such as the Met Office, consistently project daytime maxima near 28–29°C, with overnight lows around 22–24°C. Light easterly to northeasterly winds, moderate humidity (around 60%), and partial cloud cover are expected to limit stronger heating, while any brief rain or increased cloudiness could cap the peak slightly below recent days’ readings. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical highs in the upper 20s°C during this period, providing context for the current setup as autumn cooling progresses without major heatwave or cold-front influences.
Model agreement is reasonably tight around this range, with only modest spread that explains the secondary probabilities on 27°C and 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance and observed trends from September 16 (when highs reached ~29–30°C under clearer conditions) more heavily than longer-term averages. Updated model runs or official briefings on the morning of the 17th could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or cloud thickness shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,331End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain possible, aligning with the market’s strong emphasis on those outcomes (28°C at 61.5%, 29°C at 21.5%).** Official and model-derived forecasts, including Chinese meteorological summaries and international agencies such as the Met Office, consistently project daytime maxima near 28–29°C, with overnight lows around 22–24°C. Light easterly to northeasterly winds, moderate humidity (around 60%), and partial cloud cover are expected to limit stronger heating, while any brief rain or increased cloudiness could cap the peak slightly below recent days’ readings. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical highs in the upper 20s°C during this period, providing context for the current setup as autumn cooling progresses without major heatwave or cold-front influences. Model agreement is reasonably tight around this range, with only modest spread that explains the secondary probabilities on 27°C and 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance and observed trends from September 16 (when highs reached ~29–30°C under clearer conditions) more heavily than longer-term averages. Updated model runs or official briefings on the morning of the 17th could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or cloud thickness shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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