Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including National Weather Service-aligned outlooks, point to clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon highs near 100°F for Dallas on September 15, 2026, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected to limit cooling. This setup favors strong diurnal heating under typical late-summer conditions, where southerly winds advect warm, humid air while high pressure suppresses vertical mixing. Historical records show a 101°F maximum on this date, but current model consensus clusters near 99–100°F, supporting the market's 60.5% implied probability for 100–101°F as the leading outcome. Any last-minute shift in steering patterns or increased humidity could trim the peak slightly toward 98–99°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 15?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 15?
100-101°F 64%
98-99°F 22%
102-103°F 10%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
22%
100-101°F
64%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
3%
106-107°F
5%
108-109°F
3%
110°F or higher
2%
100-101°F 64%
98-99°F 22%
102-103°F 10%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
91°F or below
$2 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$188 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$98 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$150 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$236 Vol.
22%
100-101°F
$943 Vol.
64%
102-103°F
$226 Vol.
10%
104-105°F
$224 Vol.
3%
106-107°F
$100 Vol.
5%
108-109°F
$10 Vol.
3%
110°F or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including National Weather Service-aligned outlooks, point to clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon highs near 100°F for Dallas on September 15, 2026, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected to limit cooling. This setup favors strong diurnal heating under typical late-summer conditions, where southerly winds advect warm, humid air while high pressure suppresses vertical mixing. Historical records show a 101°F maximum on this date, but current model consensus clusters near 99–100°F, supporting the market's 60.5% implied probability for 100–101°F as the leading outcome. Any last-minute shift in steering patterns or increased humidity could trim the peak slightly toward 98–99°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,188End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including National Weather Service-aligned outlooks, point to clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon highs near 100°F for Dallas on September 15, 2026, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected to limit cooling. This setup favors strong diurnal heating under typical late-summer conditions, where southerly winds advect warm, humid air while high pressure suppresses vertical mixing. Historical records show a 101°F maximum on this date, but current model consensus clusters near 99–100°F, supporting the market's 60.5% implied probability for 100–101°F as the leading outcome. Any last-minute shift in steering patterns or increased humidity could trim the peak slightly toward 98–99°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,188End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including National Weather Service-aligned outlooks, point to clear skies, southerly flow, and afternoon highs near 100°F for Dallas on September 15, 2026, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected to limit cooling. This setup favors strong diurnal heating under typical late-summer conditions, where southerly winds advect warm, humid air while high pressure suppresses vertical mixing. Historical records show a 101°F maximum on this date, but current model consensus clusters near 99–100°F, supporting the market's 60.5% implied probability for 100–101°F as the leading outcome. Any last-minute shift in steering patterns or increased humidity could trim the peak slightly toward 98–99°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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