Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate a likely daily high near 28–30°C in Beijing on September 18, with partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and a modest chance of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could cap peak heating. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because small differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer moisture, or convective initiation—key variables in short-range numerical weather prediction—can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology for the region centers near 26–28°C, providing context for why probabilities favor the upper end of the range amid current warm advection patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
29°C 33%
30°C 31%
28°C 29%
27°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
33%
30°C
31%
31°C
10%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 33%
30°C 31%
28°C 29%
27°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
23°C or below
$279 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$117 Vol.
1%
25°C
$63 Vol.
1%
26°C
$31 Vol.
6%
27°C
$21 Vol.
13%
28°C
$27 Vol.
29%
29°C
$98 Vol.
33%
30°C
$20 Vol.
31%
31°C
$25 Vol.
10%
32°C
$25 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate a likely daily high near 28–30°C in Beijing on September 18, with partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and a modest chance of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could cap peak heating. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because small differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer moisture, or convective initiation—key variables in short-range numerical weather prediction—can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology for the region centers near 26–28°C, providing context for why probabilities favor the upper end of the range amid current warm advection patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$716End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate a likely daily high near 28–30°C in Beijing on September 18, with partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and a modest chance of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could cap peak heating. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because small differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer moisture, or convective initiation—key variables in short-range numerical weather prediction—can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology for the region centers near 26–28°C, providing context for why probabilities favor the upper end of the range amid current warm advection patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$716End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS models indicate a likely daily high near 28–30°C in Beijing on September 18, with partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and a modest chance of scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could cap peak heating. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because small differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer moisture, or convective initiation—key variables in short-range numerical weather prediction—can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology for the region centers near 26–28°C, providing context for why probabilities favor the upper end of the range amid current warm advection patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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