Latest ensemble forecasts for Ankara on September 16 show maximum temperatures clustered between 24–26°C, with slight model disagreements over cloud cover and northerly wind strength driving the tight market spread. ECMWF and regional guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions that could limit daytime heating compared to clearer scenarios, while surface observations from the prior 48 hours confirm stable high pressure with minimal moisture advection from the Black Sea region. Historical September baselines near 26°C provide context, yet current runs highlight sensitivity to afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development. Traders are weighting the 25°C outcome highest amid these variables, with updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings expected to refine resolution criteria before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 16?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 16?
25°C 38%
24°C 27%
26°C 20%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
8%
24°C
27%
25°C
38%
26°C
20%
27°C
5%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 38%
24°C 27%
26°C 20%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$198 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$145 Vol.
1%
21°C
$95 Vol.
3%
22°C
$102 Vol.
3%
23°C
$303 Vol.
8%
24°C
$544 Vol.
27%
25°C
$767 Vol.
38%
26°C
$1,014 Vol.
20%
27°C
$598 Vol.
5%
28°C
$89 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$167 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts for Ankara on September 16 show maximum temperatures clustered between 24–26°C, with slight model disagreements over cloud cover and northerly wind strength driving the tight market spread. ECMWF and regional guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions that could limit daytime heating compared to clearer scenarios, while surface observations from the prior 48 hours confirm stable high pressure with minimal moisture advection from the Black Sea region. Historical September baselines near 26°C provide context, yet current runs highlight sensitivity to afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development. Traders are weighting the 25°C outcome highest amid these variables, with updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings expected to refine resolution criteria before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,023End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts for Ankara on September 16 show maximum temperatures clustered between 24–26°C, with slight model disagreements over cloud cover and northerly wind strength driving the tight market spread. ECMWF and regional guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions that could limit daytime heating compared to clearer scenarios, while surface observations from the prior 48 hours confirm stable high pressure with minimal moisture advection from the Black Sea region. Historical September baselines near 26°C provide context, yet current runs highlight sensitivity to afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development. Traders are weighting the 25°C outcome highest amid these variables, with updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings expected to refine resolution criteria before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,023End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts for Ankara on September 16 show maximum temperatures clustered between 24–26°C, with slight model disagreements over cloud cover and northerly wind strength driving the tight market spread. ECMWF and regional guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions that could limit daytime heating compared to clearer scenarios, while surface observations from the prior 48 hours confirm stable high pressure with minimal moisture advection from the Black Sea region. Historical September baselines near 26°C provide context, yet current runs highlight sensitivity to afternoon boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development. Traders are weighting the 25°C outcome highest amid these variables, with updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings expected to refine resolution criteria before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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