**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak. The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
27°C 41%
26°C 31%
25°C 25%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
25%
26°C
31%
27°C
41%
28°C
9%
29°C
8%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 41%
26°C 31%
25°C 25%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$221 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$63 Vol.
1%
24°C
$27 Vol.
2%
25°C
$244 Vol.
25%
26°C
$235 Vol.
31%
27°C
$335 Vol.
41%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak.
The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,243End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak.
The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,243End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak. The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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