Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a maximum of 18–19 °C in Warsaw on September 17, driven by a westward-moving frontal system that replaced warm, clear conditions on the 16th with widespread cloud cover, showers, and cooler maritime air. Persistent overcast skies and light-to-moderate rain limit surface heating while westerly winds enhance mixing of cooler air, keeping afternoon readings from climbing higher. Minor differences among forecasts—arising from small variations in timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud thickness—create the tight 43 % / 38.5 % split between the 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes, with lower-probability bins reflecting residual model spread. Official station observations, expected later on the 17th, will resolve the exact peak under these stable synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
19°C 42%
18°C 41%
20°C 9%
17°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
9%
18°C
41%
19°C
42%
20°C
9%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 42%
18°C 41%
20°C 9%
17°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$183 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$164 Vol.
2%
17°C
$516 Vol.
9%
18°C
$853 Vol.
41%
19°C
$937 Vol.
42%
20°C
$957 Vol.
9%
21°C
$120 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$193 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a maximum of 18–19 °C in Warsaw on September 17, driven by a westward-moving frontal system that replaced warm, clear conditions on the 16th with widespread cloud cover, showers, and cooler maritime air. Persistent overcast skies and light-to-moderate rain limit surface heating while westerly winds enhance mixing of cooler air, keeping afternoon readings from climbing higher. Minor differences among forecasts—arising from small variations in timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud thickness—create the tight 43 % / 38.5 % split between the 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes, with lower-probability bins reflecting residual model spread. Official station observations, expected later on the 17th, will resolve the exact peak under these stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,668End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a maximum of 18–19 °C in Warsaw on September 17, driven by a westward-moving frontal system that replaced warm, clear conditions on the 16th with widespread cloud cover, showers, and cooler maritime air. Persistent overcast skies and light-to-moderate rain limit surface heating while westerly winds enhance mixing of cooler air, keeping afternoon readings from climbing higher. Minor differences among forecasts—arising from small variations in timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud thickness—create the tight 43 % / 38.5 % split between the 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes, with lower-probability bins reflecting residual model spread. Official station observations, expected later on the 17th, will resolve the exact peak under these stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,668End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a maximum of 18–19 °C in Warsaw on September 17, driven by a westward-moving frontal system that replaced warm, clear conditions on the 16th with widespread cloud cover, showers, and cooler maritime air. Persistent overcast skies and light-to-moderate rain limit surface heating while westerly winds enhance mixing of cooler air, keeping afternoon readings from climbing higher. Minor differences among forecasts—arising from small variations in timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud thickness—create the tight 43 % / 38.5 % split between the 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes, with lower-probability bins reflecting residual model spread. Official station observations, expected later on the 17th, will resolve the exact peak under these stable synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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