Market-implied odds for Warsaw’s September 17 minimum temperature reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty, with equal 40% probabilities assigned to 7°C or below and 17°C or higher. European-scale patterns currently feature a mix of zonal flow and transient ridging that keeps temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological minimum of roughly 9–12°C. Differentiation among outcomes hinges on the degree of overnight cloud cover modulating longwave radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds controlling turbulent mixing, and the precise advection of cooler polar-maritime versus milder continental air. Fresh model cycles and surface observations will likely narrow the range before the overnight minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
7°C or below 79%
17°C or higher 78%
15°C 39%
11°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
79%
8°C
15%
9°C
17%
10°C
23%
11°C
24%
12°C
23%
13°C
22%
14°C
21%
15°C
39%
16°C
7%
17°C or higher
78%
7°C or below 79%
17°C or higher 78%
15°C 39%
11°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
79%
8°C
$0 Vol.
15%
9°C
$0 Vol.
17%
10°C
$0 Vol.
23%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds for Warsaw’s September 17 minimum temperature reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty, with equal 40% probabilities assigned to 7°C or below and 17°C or higher. European-scale patterns currently feature a mix of zonal flow and transient ridging that keeps temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological minimum of roughly 9–12°C. Differentiation among outcomes hinges on the degree of overnight cloud cover modulating longwave radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds controlling turbulent mixing, and the precise advection of cooler polar-maritime versus milder continental air. Fresh model cycles and surface observations will likely narrow the range before the overnight minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds for Warsaw’s September 17 minimum temperature reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty, with equal 40% probabilities assigned to 7°C or below and 17°C or higher. European-scale patterns currently feature a mix of zonal flow and transient ridging that keeps temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological minimum of roughly 9–12°C. Differentiation among outcomes hinges on the degree of overnight cloud cover modulating longwave radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds controlling turbulent mixing, and the precise advection of cooler polar-maritime versus milder continental air. Fresh model cycles and surface observations will likely narrow the range before the overnight minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Warsaw’s September 17 minimum temperature reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty, with equal 40% probabilities assigned to 7°C or below and 17°C or higher. European-scale patterns currently feature a mix of zonal flow and transient ridging that keeps temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological minimum of roughly 9–12°C. Differentiation among outcomes hinges on the degree of overnight cloud cover modulating longwave radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds controlling turbulent mixing, and the precise advection of cooler polar-maritime versus milder continental air. Fresh model cycles and surface observations will likely narrow the range before the overnight minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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