**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong highest temperature market for September 16 centers on 30–31°C, reflecting model guidance from regional forecasts showing a stable subtropical ridge and easterly flow limiting extreme heating.** Current observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place mid-September mean daily maxima near 30.7–30.8°C, with recent days recording peaks around 28–30°C under partly cloudy skies and light showers. These conditions, driven by a moderate northeast monsoon and moderate humidity levels near 65–75%, typically cap afternoon highs in this range absent strong downslope warming or clear anticyclonic subsidence. Ensemble forecasts indicate low probability of significant deviation, though variable cloud cover or isolated convection could nudge the official maximum slightly lower or higher. Updated HKO guidance and model runs ahead of the 24-hour verification window remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
31°C 43%
30°C 30%
32°C 17%
29°C 7%
NEW
$10,191 Vol.
NEW
$10,191 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
30%
31°C
43%
32°C
17%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 43%
30°C 30%
32°C 17%
29°C 7%
NEW
$10,191 Vol.
NEW
$10,191 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$704 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$958 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$525 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,434 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,207 Vol.
30%
31°C
$2,032 Vol.
43%
32°C
$1,351 Vol.
17%
33°C
$605 Vol.
3%
34°C
$464 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$660 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong highest temperature market for September 16 centers on 30–31°C, reflecting model guidance from regional forecasts showing a stable subtropical ridge and easterly flow limiting extreme heating.** Current observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place mid-September mean daily maxima near 30.7–30.8°C, with recent days recording peaks around 28–30°C under partly cloudy skies and light showers. These conditions, driven by a moderate northeast monsoon and moderate humidity levels near 65–75%, typically cap afternoon highs in this range absent strong downslope warming or clear anticyclonic subsidence. Ensemble forecasts indicate low probability of significant deviation, though variable cloud cover or isolated convection could nudge the official maximum slightly lower or higher. Updated HKO guidance and model runs ahead of the 24-hour verification window remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,191End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong highest temperature market for September 16 centers on 30–31°C, reflecting model guidance from regional forecasts showing a stable subtropical ridge and easterly flow limiting extreme heating.** Current observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place mid-September mean daily maxima near 30.7–30.8°C, with recent days recording peaks around 28–30°C under partly cloudy skies and light showers. These conditions, driven by a moderate northeast monsoon and moderate humidity levels near 65–75%, typically cap afternoon highs in this range absent strong downslope warming or clear anticyclonic subsidence. Ensemble forecasts indicate low probability of significant deviation, though variable cloud cover or isolated convection could nudge the official maximum slightly lower or higher. Updated HKO guidance and model runs ahead of the 24-hour verification window remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,191End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong highest temperature market for September 16 centers on 30–31°C, reflecting model guidance from regional forecasts showing a stable subtropical ridge and easterly flow limiting extreme heating.** Current observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place mid-September mean daily maxima near 30.7–30.8°C, with recent days recording peaks around 28–30°C under partly cloudy skies and light showers. These conditions, driven by a moderate northeast monsoon and moderate humidity levels near 65–75%, typically cap afternoon highs in this range absent strong downslope warming or clear anticyclonic subsidence. Ensemble forecasts indicate low probability of significant deviation, though variable cloud cover or isolated convection could nudge the official maximum slightly lower or higher. Updated HKO guidance and model runs ahead of the 24-hour verification window remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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