**Forecast models for Warsaw on September 18, 2026, currently point to a daytime high near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies following overnight and morning showers on the 17th.** Southerly to southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover after frontal passage are limiting strong daytime heating, with afternoon temperatures expected to peak around 20–21°C according to consensus guidance from sources like Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and other regional models. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 21°C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5% and 22°C follows at 24%. Slight variations across model runs reflect typical uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, but the overall pattern favors modest recovery from the cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th rather than a return to the warmer 24°C readings seen on the 16th. With resolution just two days away, traders are closely watching updated model cycles and official meteorological service guidance for any shifts in the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
21°C 44%
22°C 22%
19°C 14%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
10%
19°C
14%
20°C
13%
21°C
44%
22°C
22%
23°C
7%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
7%
21°C 44%
22°C 22%
19°C 14%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$10 Vol.
13%
21°C
$89 Vol.
44%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$0 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Warsaw on September 18, 2026, currently point to a daytime high near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies following overnight and morning showers on the 17th.**
Southerly to southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover after frontal passage are limiting strong daytime heating, with afternoon temperatures expected to peak around 20–21°C according to consensus guidance from sources like Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and other regional models. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 21°C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5% and 22°C follows at 24%.
Slight variations across model runs reflect typical uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, but the overall pattern favors modest recovery from the cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th rather than a return to the warmer 24°C readings seen on the 16th. With resolution just two days away, traders are closely watching updated model cycles and official meteorological service guidance for any shifts in the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$99End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Warsaw on September 18, 2026, currently point to a daytime high near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies following overnight and morning showers on the 17th.**
Southerly to southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover after frontal passage are limiting strong daytime heating, with afternoon temperatures expected to peak around 20–21°C according to consensus guidance from sources like Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and other regional models. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 21°C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5% and 22°C follows at 24%.
Slight variations across model runs reflect typical uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, but the overall pattern favors modest recovery from the cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th rather than a return to the warmer 24°C readings seen on the 16th. With resolution just two days away, traders are closely watching updated model cycles and official meteorological service guidance for any shifts in the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Warsaw on September 18, 2026, currently point to a daytime high near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies following overnight and morning showers on the 17th.** Southerly to southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover after frontal passage are limiting strong daytime heating, with afternoon temperatures expected to peak around 20–21°C according to consensus guidance from sources like Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and other regional models. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 21°C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5% and 22°C follows at 24%. Slight variations across model runs reflect typical uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, but the overall pattern favors modest recovery from the cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th rather than a return to the warmer 24°C readings seen on the 16th. With resolution just two days away, traders are closely watching updated model cycles and official meteorological service guidance for any shifts in the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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