Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs and Météo-France guidance, show a high near 22°C in Paris on September 16 under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 8–18 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. This follows an unusually warm September 15 peak near 31–32°C, with the expected drop driven by a shift to cooler Atlantic air. The 21–22°C range aligns closely with the 1991–2020 September 16 climatological average high of 21.5°C, supporting the market-implied odds of 47.5% for 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. Later model updates or minor steering changes could nudge the exact maximum, though consensus remains stable within a narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 16?
22°C 48%
21°C 19%
23°C 18%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
6%
21°C
19%
22°C
48%
23°C
26%
24°C
7%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
22°C 48%
21°C 19%
23°C 18%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C
$5 Vol.
5%
20°C
$80 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$63 Vol.
48%
23°C
$116 Vol.
26%
24°C
$47 Vol.
7%
25°C
$3 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$20 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs and Météo-France guidance, show a high near 22°C in Paris on September 16 under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 8–18 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. This follows an unusually warm September 15 peak near 31–32°C, with the expected drop driven by a shift to cooler Atlantic air. The 21–22°C range aligns closely with the 1991–2020 September 16 climatological average high of 21.5°C, supporting the market-implied odds of 47.5% for 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. Later model updates or minor steering changes could nudge the exact maximum, though consensus remains stable within a narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$355End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs and Météo-France guidance, show a high near 22°C in Paris on September 16 under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 8–18 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. This follows an unusually warm September 15 peak near 31–32°C, with the expected drop driven by a shift to cooler Atlantic air. The 21–22°C range aligns closely with the 1991–2020 September 16 climatological average high of 21.5°C, supporting the market-implied odds of 47.5% for 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. Later model updates or minor steering changes could nudge the exact maximum, though consensus remains stable within a narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$355End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs and Météo-France guidance, show a high near 22°C in Paris on September 16 under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 8–18 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. This follows an unusually warm September 15 peak near 31–32°C, with the expected drop driven by a shift to cooler Atlantic air. The 21–22°C range aligns closely with the 1991–2020 September 16 climatological average high of 21.5°C, supporting the market-implied odds of 47.5% for 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. Later model updates or minor steering changes could nudge the exact maximum, though consensus remains stable within a narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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