Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Miami on September 18 show overnight lows near 77°F amid scattered to numerous thunderstorms, easterly flow, and high humidity, keeping most implied probability centered on the 70–79°F bins. Persistent deep moisture and an approaching upper-level low are expected to sustain unsettled conditions with potential for localized cooling from heavy rain, though no strong cold front or atypical pattern is indicated yet. Traders appear to price the 50% odds on 69°F or below as reflecting model uncertainty and historical precedent for sharper drops during tropical moisture surges, while the thin tail above 85°F aligns with climatological rarity of such warmth at night. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 18?
76-77°F 40%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
69°F or below
5%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 40%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$11 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Miami on September 18 show overnight lows near 77°F amid scattered to numerous thunderstorms, easterly flow, and high humidity, keeping most implied probability centered on the 70–79°F bins. Persistent deep moisture and an approaching upper-level low are expected to sustain unsettled conditions with potential for localized cooling from heavy rain, though no strong cold front or atypical pattern is indicated yet. Traders appear to price the 50% odds on 69°F or below as reflecting model uncertainty and historical precedent for sharper drops during tropical moisture surges, while the thin tail above 85°F aligns with climatological rarity of such warmth at night. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Miami on September 18 show overnight lows near 77°F amid scattered to numerous thunderstorms, easterly flow, and high humidity, keeping most implied probability centered on the 70–79°F bins. Persistent deep moisture and an approaching upper-level low are expected to sustain unsettled conditions with potential for localized cooling from heavy rain, though no strong cold front or atypical pattern is indicated yet. Traders appear to price the 50% odds on 69°F or below as reflecting model uncertainty and historical precedent for sharper drops during tropical moisture surges, while the thin tail above 85°F aligns with climatological rarity of such warmth at night. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Miami on September 18 show overnight lows near 77°F amid scattered to numerous thunderstorms, easterly flow, and high humidity, keeping most implied probability centered on the 70–79°F bins. Persistent deep moisture and an approaching upper-level low are expected to sustain unsettled conditions with potential for localized cooling from heavy rain, though no strong cold front or atypical pattern is indicated yet. Traders appear to price the 50% odds on 69°F or below as reflecting model uncertainty and historical precedent for sharper drops during tropical moisture surges, while the thin tail above 85°F aligns with climatological rarity of such warmth at night. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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