**Persistent warm, humid conditions under light southeast winds are keeping overnight lows elevated well above the mid-September climatological average of around 67°F.** Multiple forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a daily minimum in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 18, 2026, with most guidance centering on 75–78°F. This reflects an ongoing heat wave that has already made September on pace to be Austin’s warmest on record, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and high dew points near 73°F that suppress radiative cooling. **The tightly clustered market probabilities across the 70–77°F buckets capture genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and magnitude of the overnight minimum.** Small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat island effects near official observation sites (such as Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom) can shift the exact low by a degree or two. With no major synoptic changes or cold-air advection expected before sunrise, the distribution of trader-implied odds aligns with the narrow spread in ensemble forecasts rather than any single outlier scenario. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key data point for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 18?
74-75°F 41%
72-73°F 40%
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
41%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 41%
72-73°F 40%
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$31 Vol.
22%
72-73°F
$11 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$7 Vol.
41%
76-77°F
$3 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$250 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$71 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$46 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions under light southeast winds are keeping overnight lows elevated well above the mid-September climatological average of around 67°F.** Multiple forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a daily minimum in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 18, 2026, with most guidance centering on 75–78°F. This reflects an ongoing heat wave that has already made September on pace to be Austin’s warmest on record, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and high dew points near 73°F that suppress radiative cooling.
**The tightly clustered market probabilities across the 70–77°F buckets capture genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and magnitude of the overnight minimum.** Small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat island effects near official observation sites (such as Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom) can shift the exact low by a degree or two. With no major synoptic changes or cold-air advection expected before sunrise, the distribution of trader-implied odds aligns with the narrow spread in ensemble forecasts rather than any single outlier scenario. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key data point for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$460End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions under light southeast winds are keeping overnight lows elevated well above the mid-September climatological average of around 67°F.** Multiple forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a daily minimum in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 18, 2026, with most guidance centering on 75–78°F. This reflects an ongoing heat wave that has already made September on pace to be Austin’s warmest on record, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and high dew points near 73°F that suppress radiative cooling.
**The tightly clustered market probabilities across the 70–77°F buckets capture genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and magnitude of the overnight minimum.** Small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat island effects near official observation sites (such as Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom) can shift the exact low by a degree or two. With no major synoptic changes or cold-air advection expected before sunrise, the distribution of trader-implied odds aligns with the narrow spread in ensemble forecasts rather than any single outlier scenario. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key data point for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$460End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid conditions under light southeast winds are keeping overnight lows elevated well above the mid-September climatological average of around 67°F.** Multiple forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a daily minimum in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 18, 2026, with most guidance centering on 75–78°F. This reflects an ongoing heat wave that has already made September on pace to be Austin’s warmest on record, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and high dew points near 73°F that suppress radiative cooling. **The tightly clustered market probabilities across the 70–77°F buckets capture genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and magnitude of the overnight minimum.** Small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or local urban heat island effects near official observation sites (such as Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom) can shift the exact low by a degree or two. With no major synoptic changes or cold-air advection expected before sunrise, the distribution of trader-implied odds aligns with the narrow spread in ensemble forecasts rather than any single outlier scenario. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key data point for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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