Short-term forecast models from NOAA show considerable uncertainty for New York City’s maximum temperature on September 20, driving the broad distribution of trader probabilities across the 60–78°F ranges. Shifting high-pressure ridging and variable low-level moisture advection could produce daytime highs several degrees above or below late-September climatological norms near 72°F, while cloud cover and frontal timing add further spread. Ensemble guidance diverges notably on whether a weak trough will suppress temperatures or allow brief warming, keeping most outcome buckets near 18% implied probability. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 20?
68-69°F 37%
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
11%
78°F or higher
6%
68-69°F 37%
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
5%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
8%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
37%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
28%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
11%
78°F or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models from NOAA show considerable uncertainty for New York City’s maximum temperature on September 20, driving the broad distribution of trader probabilities across the 60–78°F ranges. Shifting high-pressure ridging and variable low-level moisture advection could produce daytime highs several degrees above or below late-September climatological norms near 72°F, while cloud cover and frontal timing add further spread. Ensemble guidance diverges notably on whether a weak trough will suppress temperatures or allow brief warming, keeping most outcome buckets near 18% implied probability. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models from NOAA show considerable uncertainty for New York City’s maximum temperature on September 20, driving the broad distribution of trader probabilities across the 60–78°F ranges. Shifting high-pressure ridging and variable low-level moisture advection could produce daytime highs several degrees above or below late-September climatological norms near 72°F, while cloud cover and frontal timing add further spread. Ensemble guidance diverges notably on whether a weak trough will suppress temperatures or allow brief warming, keeping most outcome buckets near 18% implied probability. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast models from NOAA show considerable uncertainty for New York City’s maximum temperature on September 20, driving the broad distribution of trader probabilities across the 60–78°F ranges. Shifting high-pressure ridging and variable low-level moisture advection could produce daytime highs several degrees above or below late-September climatological norms near 72°F, while cloud cover and frontal timing add further spread. Ensemble guidance diverges notably on whether a weak trough will suppress temperatures or allow brief warming, keeping most outcome buckets near 18% implied probability. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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