Forecast models from MetService and supporting global ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 18, with the daily maximum expected to reach 14–15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probability of 65% for 15°C, reflecting trader consensus on official guidance rather than cooler climatological averages near 12–13°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could push readings to 14°C or 16°C. Final resolution depends on verified observations from stations such as Kelburn, with any late adjustments in forecast guidance likely to influence positioning ahead of tomorrow’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
15°C 65%
14°C 18%
16°C 16%
13°C 3%
NEW
$11,670 Vol.
NEW
$11,670 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
18%
15°C
65%
16°C
16%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 65%
14°C 18%
16°C 16%
13°C 3%
NEW
$11,670 Vol.
NEW
$11,670 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
9°C or below
$253 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$299 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$596 Vol.
1%
13°C
$865 Vol.
3%
14°C
$2,080 Vol.
18%
15°C
$3,512 Vol.
65%
16°C
$2,315 Vol.
16%
17°C
$779 Vol.
2%
18°C
$568 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$279 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and supporting global ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 18, with the daily maximum expected to reach 14–15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probability of 65% for 15°C, reflecting trader consensus on official guidance rather than cooler climatological averages near 12–13°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could push readings to 14°C or 16°C. Final resolution depends on verified observations from stations such as Kelburn, with any late adjustments in forecast guidance likely to influence positioning ahead of tomorrow’s close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,670End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and supporting global ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 18, with the daily maximum expected to reach 14–15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probability of 65% for 15°C, reflecting trader consensus on official guidance rather than cooler climatological averages near 12–13°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could push readings to 14°C or 16°C. Final resolution depends on verified observations from stations such as Kelburn, with any late adjustments in forecast guidance likely to influence positioning ahead of tomorrow’s close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,670End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and supporting global ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 18, with the daily maximum expected to reach 14–15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probability of 65% for 15°C, reflecting trader consensus on official guidance rather than cooler climatological averages near 12–13°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could push readings to 14°C or 16°C. Final resolution depends on verified observations from stations such as Kelburn, with any late adjustments in forecast guidance likely to influence positioning ahead of tomorrow’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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