Current forecasts from MetService and international models show Wellington's overnight minimum likely settling near 7–8°C under mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and dew points around 7–9°C, supporting radiative cooling without strong cold-air advection. Spring climatology places typical September lows near 8–9°C, but recent model runs differ on exact timing of clearing and wind speeds that could allow a dip to 6°C or hold the floor at 8°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because official daily minima depend on precise 10-m observations at the airport station, with limited upside risk from warmer marine influence. Updated guidance through the evening will refine the final recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
6°C 98%
7°C 91%
5°C 18.9%
4°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
19%
6°C
98%
7°C
91%
8°C
-
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 98%
7°C 91%
5°C 18.9%
4°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$31 Vol.
19%
6°C
$30 Vol.
98%
7°C
$58 Vol.
91%
8°C
$66 Vol.
-
9°C
$71 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and international models show Wellington's overnight minimum likely settling near 7–8°C under mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and dew points around 7–9°C, supporting radiative cooling without strong cold-air advection. Spring climatology places typical September lows near 8–9°C, but recent model runs differ on exact timing of clearing and wind speeds that could allow a dip to 6°C or hold the floor at 8°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because official daily minima depend on precise 10-m observations at the airport station, with limited upside risk from warmer marine influence. Updated guidance through the evening will refine the final recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$342End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and international models show Wellington's overnight minimum likely settling near 7–8°C under mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and dew points around 7–9°C, supporting radiative cooling without strong cold-air advection. Spring climatology places typical September lows near 8–9°C, but recent model runs differ on exact timing of clearing and wind speeds that could allow a dip to 6°C or hold the floor at 8°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because official daily minima depend on precise 10-m observations at the airport station, with limited upside risk from warmer marine influence. Updated guidance through the evening will refine the final recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$342End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService and international models show Wellington's overnight minimum likely settling near 7–8°C under mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and dew points around 7–9°C, supporting radiative cooling without strong cold-air advection. Spring climatology places typical September lows near 8–9°C, but recent model runs differ on exact timing of clearing and wind speeds that could allow a dip to 6°C or hold the floor at 8°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because official daily minima depend on precise 10-m observations at the airport station, with limited upside risk from warmer marine influence. Updated guidance through the evening will refine the final recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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