Recent ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate a most likely minimum temperature of 7–9°C for Wellington on September 20, aligning with the market’s peak implied probabilities around those values. Spring conditions feature variable southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit overnight radiative cooling while allowing modest daytime warming, producing a typical diurnal range of 6–8°C. Historical September lows average near 8°C, providing context for the current distribution that assigns only modest odds below 6°C or above 11°C. Key variables include the exact timing of any showers, wind speed shifts, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
8°C 40%
7°C 38%
9°C 31%
6°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
5°C or below
11%
6°C
19%
7°C
38%
8°C
40%
9°C
31%
10°C
14%
11°C
10%
12°C
7%
13°C
5%
14°C
2%
15°C or higher
2%
8°C 40%
7°C 38%
9°C 31%
6°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
11%
6°C
$0 Vol.
19%
7°C
$0 Vol.
38%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
31%
10°C
$0 Vol.
14%
11°C
$0 Vol.
10%
12°C
$0 Vol.
7%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate a most likely minimum temperature of 7–9°C for Wellington on September 20, aligning with the market’s peak implied probabilities around those values. Spring conditions feature variable southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit overnight radiative cooling while allowing modest daytime warming, producing a typical diurnal range of 6–8°C. Historical September lows average near 8°C, providing context for the current distribution that assigns only modest odds below 6°C or above 11°C. Key variables include the exact timing of any showers, wind speed shifts, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate a most likely minimum temperature of 7–9°C for Wellington on September 20, aligning with the market’s peak implied probabilities around those values. Spring conditions feature variable southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit overnight radiative cooling while allowing modest daytime warming, producing a typical diurnal range of 6–8°C. Historical September lows average near 8°C, providing context for the current distribution that assigns only modest odds below 6°C or above 11°C. Key variables include the exact timing of any showers, wind speed shifts, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models indicate a most likely minimum temperature of 7–9°C for Wellington on September 20, aligning with the market’s peak implied probabilities around those values. Spring conditions feature variable southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit overnight radiative cooling while allowing modest daytime warming, producing a typical diurnal range of 6–8°C. Historical September lows average near 8°C, providing context for the current distribution that assigns only modest odds below 6°C or above 11°C. Key variables include the exact timing of any showers, wind speed shifts, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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