Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show a southerly wind shift on September 20, 2026, following a frontal passage, limiting daytime warming in Wellington and supporting a maximum near 14–15 °C with a chance of showers. This aligns with climatological spring norms around 14 °C and recent northerly-driven days reaching 15 °C before the change. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50 % implied probability for 15 °C and 31.5 % for 14 °C, incorporates model spread and typical verification uncertainty for late-spring maxima, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or downslope warming. Updated runs ahead of the event remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
15°C 53%
14°C 31%
16°C 15%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
7%
14°C
31%
15°C
53%
16°C
15%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 53%
14°C 31%
16°C 15%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
$181 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
2%
12°C
$5 Vol.
2%
13°C
$5 Vol.
7%
14°C
$437 Vol.
31%
15°C
$337 Vol.
53%
16°C
$114 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$57 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show a southerly wind shift on September 20, 2026, following a frontal passage, limiting daytime warming in Wellington and supporting a maximum near 14–15 °C with a chance of showers. This aligns with climatological spring norms around 14 °C and recent northerly-driven days reaching 15 °C before the change. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50 % implied probability for 15 °C and 31.5 % for 14 °C, incorporates model spread and typical verification uncertainty for late-spring maxima, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or downslope warming. Updated runs ahead of the event remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,594End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show a southerly wind shift on September 20, 2026, following a frontal passage, limiting daytime warming in Wellington and supporting a maximum near 14–15 °C with a chance of showers. This aligns with climatological spring norms around 14 °C and recent northerly-driven days reaching 15 °C before the change. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50 % implied probability for 15 °C and 31.5 % for 14 °C, incorporates model spread and typical verification uncertainty for late-spring maxima, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or downslope warming. Updated runs ahead of the event remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,594End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show a southerly wind shift on September 20, 2026, following a frontal passage, limiting daytime warming in Wellington and supporting a maximum near 14–15 °C with a chance of showers. This aligns with climatological spring norms around 14 °C and recent northerly-driven days reaching 15 °C before the change. Trader consensus, reflected in the 50 % implied probability for 15 °C and 31.5 % for 14 °C, incorporates model spread and typical verification uncertainty for late-spring maxima, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or downslope warming. Updated runs ahead of the event remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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