Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a mild spring day in Wellington on September 19, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under partly cloudy skies and strong northerly winds. A transient ridge building behind an earlier front is expected to allow modest daytime warming, while persistent onshore flow and cloud cover limit further gains. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where September daily maxima average near 13–15 °C. Model consensus has remained stable over the past 48 hours, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C (63.5 %) and 15 °C (20.5 %), with only modest probability assigned to 17 °C if clearing is more extensive than currently projected. Updated model runs and MetService guidance expected later today will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 19?
16°C 65%
15°C 23%
14°C 15%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
23%
16°C
65%
17°C
11%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 65%
15°C 23%
14°C 15%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5 Vol.
1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
4%
14°C
$0 Vol.
15%
15°C
$60 Vol.
23%
16°C
$374 Vol.
65%
17°C
$6 Vol.
11%
18°C
$15 Vol.
1%
19°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a mild spring day in Wellington on September 19, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under partly cloudy skies and strong northerly winds. A transient ridge building behind an earlier front is expected to allow modest daytime warming, while persistent onshore flow and cloud cover limit further gains. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where September daily maxima average near 13–15 °C. Model consensus has remained stable over the past 48 hours, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C (63.5 %) and 15 °C (20.5 %), with only modest probability assigned to 17 °C if clearing is more extensive than currently projected. Updated model runs and MetService guidance expected later today will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,064End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a mild spring day in Wellington on September 19, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under partly cloudy skies and strong northerly winds. A transient ridge building behind an earlier front is expected to allow modest daytime warming, while persistent onshore flow and cloud cover limit further gains. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where September daily maxima average near 13–15 °C. Model consensus has remained stable over the past 48 hours, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C (63.5 %) and 15 °C (20.5 %), with only modest probability assigned to 17 °C if clearing is more extensive than currently projected. Updated model runs and MetService guidance expected later today will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,064End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a mild spring day in Wellington on September 19, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under partly cloudy skies and strong northerly winds. A transient ridge building behind an earlier front is expected to allow modest daytime warming, while persistent onshore flow and cloud cover limit further gains. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where September daily maxima average near 13–15 °C. Model consensus has remained stable over the past 48 hours, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C (63.5 %) and 15 °C (20.5 %), with only modest probability assigned to 17 °C if clearing is more extensive than currently projected. Updated model runs and MetService guidance expected later today will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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