Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a low in the low-to-mid 60s for New York City on September 19, driven by northerly flow behind a frontal passage that has replaced warm, humid southerly air with cooler, drier conditions. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, combined with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph, are expected to limit radiational cooling while preventing significant warming, keeping the minimum near 61–63 °F. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 60.5 °F for the date and explains why the 60–61 °F and 62–63 °F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. Minor differences among model runs—particularly in cloud cover and wind timing—account for the tight spread across the three leading outcomes, with updates from the 00Z and 12Z cycles likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 19?
62-63°F 40%
60-61°F 30%
64-65°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
2%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
10%
60-61°F
30%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
22%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
2%
74°F or higher
2%
62-63°F 40%
60-61°F 30%
64-65°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
4%
58-59°F
$63 Vol.
10%
60-61°F
$2 Vol.
30%
62-63°F
$5 Vol.
30%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
22%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
2%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a low in the low-to-mid 60s for New York City on September 19, driven by northerly flow behind a frontal passage that has replaced warm, humid southerly air with cooler, drier conditions. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, combined with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph, are expected to limit radiational cooling while preventing significant warming, keeping the minimum near 61–63 °F. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 60.5 °F for the date and explains why the 60–61 °F and 62–63 °F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. Minor differences among model runs—particularly in cloud cover and wind timing—account for the tight spread across the three leading outcomes, with updates from the 00Z and 12Z cycles likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a low in the low-to-mid 60s for New York City on September 19, driven by northerly flow behind a frontal passage that has replaced warm, humid southerly air with cooler, drier conditions. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, combined with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph, are expected to limit radiational cooling while preventing significant warming, keeping the minimum near 61–63 °F. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 60.5 °F for the date and explains why the 60–61 °F and 62–63 °F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. Minor differences among model runs—particularly in cloud cover and wind timing—account for the tight spread across the three leading outcomes, with updates from the 00Z and 12Z cycles likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a low in the low-to-mid 60s for New York City on September 19, driven by northerly flow behind a frontal passage that has replaced warm, humid southerly air with cooler, drier conditions. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, combined with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph, are expected to limit radiational cooling while preventing significant warming, keeping the minimum near 61–63 °F. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 60.5 °F for the date and explains why the 60–61 °F and 62–63 °F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. Minor differences among model runs—particularly in cloud cover and wind timing—account for the tight spread across the three leading outcomes, with updates from the 00Z and 12Z cycles likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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