**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22. Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
3%
3-4 states
3%
5-6 states
3%
7-9 states
5%
10 or more states
94%
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
$25 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
3%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
3%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
3%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
5%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22.
Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22.
Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22. Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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