Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 18 converge on a daily high near 25–27°C under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-September. These conditions limit daytime heating compared to clearer periods, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–28°C. Regional model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows modest variability in cloud timing and rainfall amounts that can shift the peak by 1–2°C, while climatological baselines for the date average near 25°C. Updated short-range model outputs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
26°C 24%
27°C 21%
25°C 19%
24°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
8%
23°C
14%
24°C
17%
25°C
19%
26°C
24%
27°C
21%
28°C
13%
29°C
10%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 24%
27°C 21%
25°C 19%
24°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$20 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$5 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
10%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 18 converge on a daily high near 25–27°C under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-September. These conditions limit daytime heating compared to clearer periods, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–28°C. Regional model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows modest variability in cloud timing and rainfall amounts that can shift the peak by 1–2°C, while climatological baselines for the date average near 25°C. Updated short-range model outputs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 18 converge on a daily high near 25–27°C under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-September. These conditions limit daytime heating compared to clearer periods, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–28°C. Regional model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows modest variability in cloud timing and rainfall amounts that can shift the peak by 1–2°C, while climatological baselines for the date average near 25°C. Updated short-range model outputs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 18 converge on a daily high near 25–27°C under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-September. These conditions limit daytime heating compared to clearer periods, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–28°C. Regional model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows modest variability in cloud timing and rainfall amounts that can shift the peak by 1–2°C, while climatological baselines for the date average near 25°C. Updated short-range model outputs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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