Current forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS-based models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14°C for Toronto on September 19, driven by easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mild air masses rather than strong cold advection. Trader consensus around the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher outcomes, alongside elevated odds near 12°C, reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could modestly alter the low by a few degrees. Historical September averages near 13°C provide context, while upcoming model runs and surface observations will clarify whether any unexpected clearing or frontal passage shifts the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 19?
5°C or below 89%
15°C or higher 87%
13°C 40%
9°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
5°C or below
89%
6°C
18%
7°C
18%
8°C
14%
9°C
35%
10°C
18%
11°C
22%
12°C
35%
13°C
40%
14°C
35%
15°C or higher
87%
5°C or below 89%
15°C or higher 87%
13°C 40%
9°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
6°C
$0 Vol.
18%
7°C
$0 Vol.
18%
8°C
$0 Vol.
14%
9°C
$0 Vol.
35%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$5 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
35%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS-based models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14°C for Toronto on September 19, driven by easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mild air masses rather than strong cold advection. Trader consensus around the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher outcomes, alongside elevated odds near 12°C, reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could modestly alter the low by a few degrees. Historical September averages near 13°C provide context, while upcoming model runs and surface observations will clarify whether any unexpected clearing or frontal passage shifts the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS-based models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14°C for Toronto on September 19, driven by easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mild air masses rather than strong cold advection. Trader consensus around the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher outcomes, alongside elevated odds near 12°C, reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could modestly alter the low by a few degrees. Historical September averages near 13°C provide context, while upcoming model runs and surface observations will clarify whether any unexpected clearing or frontal passage shifts the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS-based models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14°C for Toronto on September 19, driven by easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mild air masses rather than strong cold advection. Trader consensus around the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher outcomes, alongside elevated odds near 12°C, reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts that could modestly alter the low by a few degrees. Historical September averages near 13°C provide context, while upcoming model runs and surface observations will clarify whether any unexpected clearing or frontal passage shifts the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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