Market-implied probabilities center on 26–27°C because the latest global model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, projects a daytime high in that narrow band for São Paulo on September 19 amid easterly winds near 10–15 km/h, partial cloud cover, and light shower chances that cap solar insolation. These conditions align closely with September climatology, where long-term averages reach 25–27°C, while model spreads and local urban heat-island effects create the tight clustering around the leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z updates, with resolution hinging on the official INMET maximum temperature reading; further model agreement or clearing skies could shift sentiment toward 28°C before observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 19?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 19?
27°C 36%
26°C 32%
25°C 16%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
7%
25°C
16%
26°C
32%
27°C
36%
28°C
7%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
27°C 36%
26°C 32%
25°C 16%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
$30 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C
$30 Vol.
2%
23°C
$154 Vol.
3%
24°C
$136 Vol.
7%
25°C
$24 Vol.
16%
26°C
$423 Vol.
32%
27°C
$2,994 Vol.
36%
28°C
$229 Vol.
7%
29°C
$72 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$226 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied probabilities center on 26–27°C because the latest global model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, projects a daytime high in that narrow band for São Paulo on September 19 amid easterly winds near 10–15 km/h, partial cloud cover, and light shower chances that cap solar insolation. These conditions align closely with September climatology, where long-term averages reach 25–27°C, while model spreads and local urban heat-island effects create the tight clustering around the leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z updates, with resolution hinging on the official INMET maximum temperature reading; further model agreement or clearing skies could shift sentiment toward 28°C before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$4,323End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied probabilities center on 26–27°C because the latest global model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, projects a daytime high in that narrow band for São Paulo on September 19 amid easterly winds near 10–15 km/h, partial cloud cover, and light shower chances that cap solar insolation. These conditions align closely with September climatology, where long-term averages reach 25–27°C, while model spreads and local urban heat-island effects create the tight clustering around the leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z updates, with resolution hinging on the official INMET maximum temperature reading; further model agreement or clearing skies could shift sentiment toward 28°C before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,323End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied probabilities center on 26–27°C because the latest global model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, projects a daytime high in that narrow band for São Paulo on September 19 amid easterly winds near 10–15 km/h, partial cloud cover, and light shower chances that cap solar insolation. These conditions align closely with September climatology, where long-term averages reach 25–27°C, while model spreads and local urban heat-island effects create the tight clustering around the leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the most recent 00Z–12Z updates, with resolution hinging on the official INMET maximum temperature reading; further model agreement or clearing skies could shift sentiment toward 28°C before observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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