**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 18 reflects model consensus around typical late-summer tropical conditions, with overnight lows expected near 25–27°C amid widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms.** High humidity near 90% and light variable winds limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to recent observations and climatological baselines for the period. Official guidance from agencies like PAGASA and global models shows consistent overnight readings in this range, though slight differences in storm timing or cloud thickness introduce uncertainty that supports closely matched probabilities across 25–27°C outcomes and the broader 20°C-or-below versus 30°C-or-higher tails. Updated model runs and local monitoring over the next 12–24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
30°C or higher 85%
20°C or below 78%
27°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
78%
21°C
39%
22°C
37%
23°C
37%
24°C
38%
25°C
22%
26°C
35%
27°C
24%
28°C
37%
29°C
37%
30°C or higher
85%
30°C or higher 85%
20°C or below 78%
27°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$36 Vol.
35%
27°C
$32 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
37%
29°C
$0 Vol.
37%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 18 reflects model consensus around typical late-summer tropical conditions, with overnight lows expected near 25–27°C amid widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms.** High humidity near 90% and light variable winds limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to recent observations and climatological baselines for the period. Official guidance from agencies like PAGASA and global models shows consistent overnight readings in this range, though slight differences in storm timing or cloud thickness introduce uncertainty that supports closely matched probabilities across 25–27°C outcomes and the broader 20°C-or-below versus 30°C-or-higher tails. Updated model runs and local monitoring over the next 12–24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 18 reflects model consensus around typical late-summer tropical conditions, with overnight lows expected near 25–27°C amid widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms.** High humidity near 90% and light variable winds limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to recent observations and climatological baselines for the period. Official guidance from agencies like PAGASA and global models shows consistent overnight readings in this range, though slight differences in storm timing or cloud thickness introduce uncertainty that supports closely matched probabilities across 25–27°C outcomes and the broader 20°C-or-below versus 30°C-or-higher tails. Updated model runs and local monitoring over the next 12–24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on September 18 reflects model consensus around typical late-summer tropical conditions, with overnight lows expected near 25–27°C amid widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms.** High humidity near 90% and light variable winds limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums close to recent observations and climatological baselines for the period. Official guidance from agencies like PAGASA and global models shows consistent overnight readings in this range, though slight differences in storm timing or cloud thickness introduce uncertainty that supports closely matched probabilities across 25–27°C outcomes and the broader 20°C-or-below versus 30°C-or-higher tails. Updated model runs and local monitoring over the next 12–24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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