**Frequent thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and southwest monsoon are anchoring trader expectations for Manila’s September 19 minimum temperature.** Current forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate overnight lows near 25–26 °C under persistent cloud cover, with isolated heavy showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup favors outcomes around the 24–26 °C range while making extremes (below 21 °C or 31 °C+) less probable unless a stronger low-pressure system or clear-sky break develops in the final 48 hours. Model consensus remains stable, but the proximity to resolution and potential for localized downpours introduce genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 19?
21°C or below 87%
31°C or higher 87%
27°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
87%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
25%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
40%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
87%
21°C or below 87%
31°C or higher 87%
27°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
40%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Frequent thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and southwest monsoon are anchoring trader expectations for Manila’s September 19 minimum temperature.** Current forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate overnight lows near 25–26 °C under persistent cloud cover, with isolated heavy showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup favors outcomes around the 24–26 °C range while making extremes (below 21 °C or 31 °C+) less probable unless a stronger low-pressure system or clear-sky break develops in the final 48 hours. Model consensus remains stable, but the proximity to resolution and potential for localized downpours introduce genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Frequent thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and southwest monsoon are anchoring trader expectations for Manila’s September 19 minimum temperature.** Current forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate overnight lows near 25–26 °C under persistent cloud cover, with isolated heavy showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup favors outcomes around the 24–26 °C range while making extremes (below 21 °C or 31 °C+) less probable unless a stronger low-pressure system or clear-sky break develops in the final 48 hours. Model consensus remains stable, but the proximity to resolution and potential for localized downpours introduce genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Frequent thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and southwest monsoon are anchoring trader expectations for Manila’s September 19 minimum temperature.** Current forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate overnight lows near 25–26 °C under persistent cloud cover, with isolated heavy showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup favors outcomes around the 24–26 °C range while making extremes (below 21 °C or 31 °C+) less probable unless a stronger low-pressure system or clear-sky break develops in the final 48 hours. Model consensus remains stable, but the proximity to resolution and potential for localized downpours introduce genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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