Stable atmospheric conditions over Beijing, with light easterly to southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, are the main driver keeping overnight radiative cooling modest and anchoring the minimum temperature near 20°C on September 18. High surface moisture and dew points around 18–20°C further limit sharp drops, consistent with GFS and regional model consensus showing lows of 19–21°C amid a typical late-summer pattern without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Model spread and subtle steering variations create the observed market balance between central outcomes and low-probability tails below 15°C or above 23°C. Final resolution will hinge on official overnight readings from central stations as the day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
14°C or below 73%
24°C or higher 73%
20°C 40%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
73%
15°C
38%
16°C
38%
17°C
39%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
33%
21°C
39%
22°C
38%
23°C
38%
24°C or higher
73%
14°C or below 73%
24°C or higher 73%
20°C 40%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
73%
15°C
$0 Vol.
38%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$70 Vol.
33%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable atmospheric conditions over Beijing, with light easterly to southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, are the main driver keeping overnight radiative cooling modest and anchoring the minimum temperature near 20°C on September 18. High surface moisture and dew points around 18–20°C further limit sharp drops, consistent with GFS and regional model consensus showing lows of 19–21°C amid a typical late-summer pattern without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Model spread and subtle steering variations create the observed market balance between central outcomes and low-probability tails below 15°C or above 23°C. Final resolution will hinge on official overnight readings from central stations as the day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable atmospheric conditions over Beijing, with light easterly to southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, are the main driver keeping overnight radiative cooling modest and anchoring the minimum temperature near 20°C on September 18. High surface moisture and dew points around 18–20°C further limit sharp drops, consistent with GFS and regional model consensus showing lows of 19–21°C amid a typical late-summer pattern without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Model spread and subtle steering variations create the observed market balance between central outcomes and low-probability tails below 15°C or above 23°C. Final resolution will hinge on official overnight readings from central stations as the day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable atmospheric conditions over Beijing, with light easterly to southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, are the main driver keeping overnight radiative cooling modest and anchoring the minimum temperature near 20°C on September 18. High surface moisture and dew points around 18–20°C further limit sharp drops, consistent with GFS and regional model consensus showing lows of 19–21°C amid a typical late-summer pattern without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Model spread and subtle steering variations create the observed market balance between central outcomes and low-probability tails below 15°C or above 23°C. Final resolution will hinge on official overnight readings from central stations as the day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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