Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other major models indicate a daily maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Southwesterly flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered light rain or showers are expected to limit daytime warming under typical mid-September conditions, where the long-term average high is approximately 19°C. Model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture introduce modest uncertainty around the exact peak, with traders weighting recent runs that favor values clustered around the seasonal norm. Updated guidance ahead of the date will further shape resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
21°C 44%
20°C 35%
19°C 13%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
13%
20°C
35%
21°C
44%
22°C
11%
23°C
5%
24°C
10%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 44%
20°C 35%
19°C 13%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
$6 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$13 Vol.
13%
20°C
$137 Vol.
35%
21°C
$166 Vol.
44%
22°C
$6 Vol.
11%
23°C
$9 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$6 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other major models indicate a daily maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Southwesterly flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered light rain or showers are expected to limit daytime warming under typical mid-September conditions, where the long-term average high is approximately 19°C. Model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture introduce modest uncertainty around the exact peak, with traders weighting recent runs that favor values clustered around the seasonal norm. Updated guidance ahead of the date will further shape resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other major models indicate a daily maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Southwesterly flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered light rain or showers are expected to limit daytime warming under typical mid-September conditions, where the long-term average high is approximately 19°C. Model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture introduce modest uncertainty around the exact peak, with traders weighting recent runs that favor values clustered around the seasonal norm. Updated guidance ahead of the date will further shape resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other major models indicate a daily maximum temperature near 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 19, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Southwesterly flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered light rain or showers are expected to limit daytime warming under typical mid-September conditions, where the long-term average high is approximately 19°C. Model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture introduce modest uncertainty around the exact peak, with traders weighting recent runs that favor values clustered around the seasonal norm. Updated guidance ahead of the date will further shape resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions