Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle points to a September 15 overnight low in the low-to-mid 50s °F, with most runs clustered between 52–57 °F under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and a modest marine layer. This consensus, combined with the climatological average low of 53.2 °F, underpins the near-even market distribution across the 50–57 °F bins while sustaining meaningful probability mass on both colder outliers (clearer skies allowing stronger radiative cooling) and warmer ones (increased cloud cover or a stronger onshore flow). Key variables still in flux include the exact timing and coverage of any drizzle, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which NWS updates and high-resolution model runs through the 14th–15th will refine before the midnight-to-midnight observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on September 15?
45°F or below 100%
64°F or higher 97%
54-55°F 40%
56-57°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
45°F or below
100%
46-47°F
39%
48-49°F
39%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
40%
56-57°F
40%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64°F or higher
97%
45°F or below 100%
64°F or higher 97%
54-55°F 40%
56-57°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
45°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
46-47°F
$37 Vol.
39%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
39%
50-51°F
$43 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
21%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
40%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
40%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64°F or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle points to a September 15 overnight low in the low-to-mid 50s °F, with most runs clustered between 52–57 °F under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and a modest marine layer. This consensus, combined with the climatological average low of 53.2 °F, underpins the near-even market distribution across the 50–57 °F bins while sustaining meaningful probability mass on both colder outliers (clearer skies allowing stronger radiative cooling) and warmer ones (increased cloud cover or a stronger onshore flow). Key variables still in flux include the exact timing and coverage of any drizzle, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which NWS updates and high-resolution model runs through the 14th–15th will refine before the midnight-to-midnight observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle points to a September 15 overnight low in the low-to-mid 50s °F, with most runs clustered between 52–57 °F under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and a modest marine layer. This consensus, combined with the climatological average low of 53.2 °F, underpins the near-even market distribution across the 50–57 °F bins while sustaining meaningful probability mass on both colder outliers (clearer skies allowing stronger radiative cooling) and warmer ones (increased cloud cover or a stronger onshore flow). Key variables still in flux include the exact timing and coverage of any drizzle, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which NWS updates and high-resolution model runs through the 14th–15th will refine before the midnight-to-midnight observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle points to a September 15 overnight low in the low-to-mid 50s °F, with most runs clustered between 52–57 °F under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and a modest marine layer. This consensus, combined with the climatological average low of 53.2 °F, underpins the near-even market distribution across the 50–57 °F bins while sustaining meaningful probability mass on both colder outliers (clearer skies allowing stronger radiative cooling) and warmer ones (increased cloud cover or a stronger onshore flow). Key variables still in flux include the exact timing and coverage of any drizzle, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which NWS updates and high-resolution model runs through the 14th–15th will refine before the midnight-to-midnight observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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