Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Mexico City's high on September 16 likely reaching 23–24°C under mostly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and limited solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This setup aligns with the market's leading 25°C outcome at 56% implied probability, as historical September maxima average near 25°C and urban heat island effects or brief afternoon clearing could add 1–2°C. The 26°C bin at 34% reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus on cloud cover and moisture from the ongoing rainy season, while lower probabilities for 27°C+ or sub-24°C outcomes stem from stable steering patterns and minimal convective activity expected through the 24-hour period. Updated model guidance later today will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
25°C 56%
26°C 30%
24°C 9%
27°C or higher 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
56%
26°C
30%
27°C or higher
6%
25°C 56%
26°C 30%
24°C 9%
27°C or higher 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
$502 Vol.
1%
18°C
$302 Vol.
1%
19°C
$302 Vol.
1%
20°C
$302 Vol.
1%
21°C
$235 Vol.
1%
22°C
$236 Vol.
2%
23°C
$317 Vol.
2%
24°C
$654 Vol.
9%
25°C
$2,067 Vol.
56%
26°C
$2,171 Vol.
30%
27°C or higher
$244 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Mexico City's high on September 16 likely reaching 23–24°C under mostly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and limited solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This setup aligns with the market's leading 25°C outcome at 56% implied probability, as historical September maxima average near 25°C and urban heat island effects or brief afternoon clearing could add 1–2°C. The 26°C bin at 34% reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus on cloud cover and moisture from the ongoing rainy season, while lower probabilities for 27°C+ or sub-24°C outcomes stem from stable steering patterns and minimal convective activity expected through the 24-hour period. Updated model guidance later today will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,162End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Mexico City's high on September 16 likely reaching 23–24°C under mostly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and limited solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This setup aligns with the market's leading 25°C outcome at 56% implied probability, as historical September maxima average near 25°C and urban heat island effects or brief afternoon clearing could add 1–2°C. The 26°C bin at 34% reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus on cloud cover and moisture from the ongoing rainy season, while lower probabilities for 27°C+ or sub-24°C outcomes stem from stable steering patterns and minimal convective activity expected through the 24-hour period. Updated model guidance later today will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,162End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Mexico City's high on September 16 likely reaching 23–24°C under mostly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and limited solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This setup aligns with the market's leading 25°C outcome at 56% implied probability, as historical September maxima average near 25°C and urban heat island effects or brief afternoon clearing could add 1–2°C. The 26°C bin at 34% reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus on cloud cover and moisture from the ongoing rainy season, while lower probabilities for 27°C+ or sub-24°C outcomes stem from stable steering patterns and minimal convective activity expected through the 24-hour period. Updated model guidance later today will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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