**Short-term forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 16.** Numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a range of possible overnight minima influenced by variable northerly wind flows across Cook Strait, cloud cover, and the timing of any weak frontal passages. Historical September climatology places typical daily lows near 8–10°C, but springtime variability from topography and sea breezes creates genuine spread. Traders appear to weigh the risk of clearer skies allowing cooler radiational cooling against stronger winds or increased cloud that could moderate the minimum. Updated model cycles and official MetService guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
7°C or below 77%
17°C or higher 75%
9°C 39%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
77%
8°C
17%
9°C
39%
10°C
22%
11°C
28%
12°C
28%
13°C
21%
14°C
39%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C or higher
75%
7°C or below 77%
17°C or higher 75%
9°C 39%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
77%
8°C
$32 Vol.
17%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$125 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
17%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 16.** Numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a range of possible overnight minima influenced by variable northerly wind flows across Cook Strait, cloud cover, and the timing of any weak frontal passages. Historical September climatology places typical daily lows near 8–10°C, but springtime variability from topography and sea breezes creates genuine spread. Traders appear to weigh the risk of clearer skies allowing cooler radiational cooling against stronger winds or increased cloud that could moderate the minimum. Updated model cycles and official MetService guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 16.** Numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a range of possible overnight minima influenced by variable northerly wind flows across Cook Strait, cloud cover, and the timing of any weak frontal passages. Historical September climatology places typical daily lows near 8–10°C, but springtime variability from topography and sea breezes creates genuine spread. Traders appear to weigh the risk of clearer skies allowing cooler radiational cooling against stronger winds or increased cloud that could moderate the minimum. Updated model cycles and official MetService guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 16.** Numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a range of possible overnight minima influenced by variable northerly wind flows across Cook Strait, cloud cover, and the timing of any weak frontal passages. Historical September climatology places typical daily lows near 8–10°C, but springtime variability from topography and sea breezes creates genuine spread. Traders appear to weigh the risk of clearer skies allowing cooler radiational cooling against stronger winds or increased cloud that could moderate the minimum. Updated model cycles and official MetService guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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