National Weather Service forecasts for July 19 point to a high near 81°F under gradually clearing skies with northwest winds near 14 mph, following Saturday showers and widespread smoke. This consensus, combined with climatological norms around 82–85°F and recent model runs showing modest day-to-day variability from smoke scattering and boundary-layer mixing, keeps the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins tied at 33% implied probability each. Traders weigh the potential for slightly stronger clearing or lighter winds to push readings into the mid-80s against the risk of lingering haze or earlier stabilization capping the peak, producing tight clustering in the low-80s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 22%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
$11,190 Vol.
NEW
$11,190 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 40%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 22%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
$11,190 Vol.
NEW
$11,190 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
73°F or below
$84 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,917 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$4,206 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$1,041 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$730 Vol.
27%
82-83°F
$1,697 Vol.
40%
84-85°F
$424 Vol.
22%
86-87°F
$428 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$104 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$286 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for July 19 point to a high near 81°F under gradually clearing skies with northwest winds near 14 mph, following Saturday showers and widespread smoke. This consensus, combined with climatological norms around 82–85°F and recent model runs showing modest day-to-day variability from smoke scattering and boundary-layer mixing, keeps the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins tied at 33% implied probability each. Traders weigh the potential for slightly stronger clearing or lighter winds to push readings into the mid-80s against the risk of lingering haze or earlier stabilization capping the peak, producing tight clustering in the low-80s range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,190End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for July 19 point to a high near 81°F under gradually clearing skies with northwest winds near 14 mph, following Saturday showers and widespread smoke. This consensus, combined with climatological norms around 82–85°F and recent model runs showing modest day-to-day variability from smoke scattering and boundary-layer mixing, keeps the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins tied at 33% implied probability each. Traders weigh the potential for slightly stronger clearing or lighter winds to push readings into the mid-80s against the risk of lingering haze or earlier stabilization capping the peak, producing tight clustering in the low-80s range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,190End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for July 19 point to a high near 81°F under gradually clearing skies with northwest winds near 14 mph, following Saturday showers and widespread smoke. This consensus, combined with climatological norms around 82–85°F and recent model runs showing modest day-to-day variability from smoke scattering and boundary-layer mixing, keeps the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins tied at 33% implied probability each. Traders weigh the potential for slightly stronger clearing or lighter winds to push readings into the mid-80s against the risk of lingering haze or earlier stabilization capping the peak, producing tight clustering in the low-80s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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