Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 18?
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 22%
77°F or below 18%
82-83°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
77°F or below
18%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 22%
77°F or below 18%
82-83°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
77°F or below
$964 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$1,189 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$2,790 Vol.
35%
82-83°F
$435 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$679 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$586 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$476 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$669 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$225 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$239 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$245 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$8,066End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,066End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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