Traders see 17°C and 18°C as near-equally likely for Cape Town’s July 19 maximum because mid-winter forecasts from global models show daytime highs clustering around the 16–17°C climatological average shaped by the cold Benguela Current. A passing Atlantic cold front or stronger onshore flow could cap readings at 17°C, while lighter winds and partial clearing support a brief rise to 18°C. Ensemble spreads remain tight this far ahead, with limited model disagreement on timing of any frontal passage. Historical July maxima rarely exceed 19°C or fall below 15°C without major synoptic shifts, keeping lower-probability brackets subdued. Updated model runs and South African Weather Service guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine the narrow gap between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 19?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 19?
14°C 61.9%
15°C 29%
16°C 11%
17°C 2.0%
$17,756 Vol.
$17,756 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
62%
15°C
29%
16°C
11%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 61.9%
15°C 29%
16°C 11%
17°C 2.0%
$17,756 Vol.
$17,756 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
12°C or below
$260 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,080 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,090 Vol.
62%
15°C
$1,722 Vol.
29%
16°C
$1,684 Vol.
11%
17°C
$2,252 Vol.
2%
18°C
$2,197 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,558 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,676 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 17°C and 18°C as near-equally likely for Cape Town’s July 19 maximum because mid-winter forecasts from global models show daytime highs clustering around the 16–17°C climatological average shaped by the cold Benguela Current. A passing Atlantic cold front or stronger onshore flow could cap readings at 17°C, while lighter winds and partial clearing support a brief rise to 18°C. Ensemble spreads remain tight this far ahead, with limited model disagreement on timing of any frontal passage. Historical July maxima rarely exceed 19°C or fall below 15°C without major synoptic shifts, keeping lower-probability brackets subdued. Updated model runs and South African Weather Service guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine the narrow gap between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$17,756End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 17°C and 18°C as near-equally likely for Cape Town’s July 19 maximum because mid-winter forecasts from global models show daytime highs clustering around the 16–17°C climatological average shaped by the cold Benguela Current. A passing Atlantic cold front or stronger onshore flow could cap readings at 17°C, while lighter winds and partial clearing support a brief rise to 18°C. Ensemble spreads remain tight this far ahead, with limited model disagreement on timing of any frontal passage. Historical July maxima rarely exceed 19°C or fall below 15°C without major synoptic shifts, keeping lower-probability brackets subdued. Updated model runs and South African Weather Service guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine the narrow gap between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,756End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 17°C and 18°C as near-equally likely for Cape Town’s July 19 maximum because mid-winter forecasts from global models show daytime highs clustering around the 16–17°C climatological average shaped by the cold Benguela Current. A passing Atlantic cold front or stronger onshore flow could cap readings at 17°C, while lighter winds and partial clearing support a brief rise to 18°C. Ensemble spreads remain tight this far ahead, with limited model disagreement on timing of any frontal passage. Historical July maxima rarely exceed 19°C or fall below 15°C without major synoptic shifts, keeping lower-probability brackets subdued. Updated model runs and South African Weather Service guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine the narrow gap between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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