National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for July 17 points to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s amid lingering smoke and haze from regional wildfires, which can slightly suppress maximum temperatures through reduced insolation. Recent model runs show a transition from the early-July heat wave—when Central Park hit 100°F—to a more moderate pattern driven by northerly flow and lower dew points, keeping heat indices from spiking. This consensus supports trader emphasis on the 88-89°F and 86-87°F bins as the most probable outcomes, while uncertainty in exact smoke coverage and afternoon mixing leaves room for minor upside or downside revisions in the final NWS forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 33%
90-91°F 18%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
81°F or below
1%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
33%
88-89°F
34%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 33%
90-91°F 18%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
81°F or below
$1,911 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$117 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$257 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$291 Vol.
33%
88-89°F
$136 Vol.
34%
90-91°F
$167 Vol.
18%
92-93°F
$313 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$74 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$134 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$583 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$216 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for July 17 points to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s amid lingering smoke and haze from regional wildfires, which can slightly suppress maximum temperatures through reduced insolation. Recent model runs show a transition from the early-July heat wave—when Central Park hit 100°F—to a more moderate pattern driven by northerly flow and lower dew points, keeping heat indices from spiking. This consensus supports trader emphasis on the 88-89°F and 86-87°F bins as the most probable outcomes, while uncertainty in exact smoke coverage and afternoon mixing leaves room for minor upside or downside revisions in the final NWS forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,182End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for July 17 points to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s amid lingering smoke and haze from regional wildfires, which can slightly suppress maximum temperatures through reduced insolation. Recent model runs show a transition from the early-July heat wave—when Central Park hit 100°F—to a more moderate pattern driven by northerly flow and lower dew points, keeping heat indices from spiking. This consensus supports trader emphasis on the 88-89°F and 86-87°F bins as the most probable outcomes, while uncertainty in exact smoke coverage and afternoon mixing leaves room for minor upside or downside revisions in the final NWS forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,182End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for July 17 points to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s amid lingering smoke and haze from regional wildfires, which can slightly suppress maximum temperatures through reduced insolation. Recent model runs show a transition from the early-July heat wave—when Central Park hit 100°F—to a more moderate pattern driven by northerly flow and lower dew points, keeping heat indices from spiking. This consensus supports trader emphasis on the 88-89°F and 86-87°F bins as the most probable outcomes, while uncertainty in exact smoke coverage and afternoon mixing leaves room for minor upside or downside revisions in the final NWS forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions