Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 18?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$18,659 Vol.
$18,659 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$18,659 Vol.
$18,659 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
$232 Vol.
No
21°C
$479 Vol.
No
22°C
$932 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,179 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,013 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,530 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$4,417 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,259 Vol.
No
28°C
$589 Vol.
No
29°C
$649 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$380 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,659End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,659End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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