Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southerly wind shift and likely rain on September 22 will moderate daytime highs in Wellington to the 12–14°C range, aligning with the market’s strong weighting toward 15°C and 14°C outcomes. Spring transition in the Southern Hemisphere typically brings variable temperatures around the 14°C September average high, but current conditions feature cooler maritime air advection and cloud cover that suppress warming, consistent with observed highs of 12–15°C in the prior week. Model consensus highlights modest uncertainty from exact timing of frontal passage and wind strength, which could allow brief clearing to push readings toward 15°C or keep them nearer 13°C. Upcoming official MetService updates and refined model runs in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 22?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 22?
15°C 63%
14°C 40%
13°C 19%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
6%
12°C
6%
13°C
12%
14°C
25%
15°C
63%
16°C
9%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 63%
14°C 40%
13°C 19%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
10°C
$0 Vol.
3%
11°C
$0 Vol.
6%
12°C
$0 Vol.
6%
13°C
$5 Vol.
12%
14°C
$44 Vol.
25%
15°C
$492 Vol.
63%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southerly wind shift and likely rain on September 22 will moderate daytime highs in Wellington to the 12–14°C range, aligning with the market’s strong weighting toward 15°C and 14°C outcomes. Spring transition in the Southern Hemisphere typically brings variable temperatures around the 14°C September average high, but current conditions feature cooler maritime air advection and cloud cover that suppress warming, consistent with observed highs of 12–15°C in the prior week. Model consensus highlights modest uncertainty from exact timing of frontal passage and wind strength, which could allow brief clearing to push readings toward 15°C or keep them nearer 13°C. Upcoming official MetService updates and refined model runs in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$541End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southerly wind shift and likely rain on September 22 will moderate daytime highs in Wellington to the 12–14°C range, aligning with the market’s strong weighting toward 15°C and 14°C outcomes. Spring transition in the Southern Hemisphere typically brings variable temperatures around the 14°C September average high, but current conditions feature cooler maritime air advection and cloud cover that suppress warming, consistent with observed highs of 12–15°C in the prior week. Model consensus highlights modest uncertainty from exact timing of frontal passage and wind strength, which could allow brief clearing to push readings toward 15°C or keep them nearer 13°C. Upcoming official MetService updates and refined model runs in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$541End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southerly wind shift and likely rain on September 22 will moderate daytime highs in Wellington to the 12–14°C range, aligning with the market’s strong weighting toward 15°C and 14°C outcomes. Spring transition in the Southern Hemisphere typically brings variable temperatures around the 14°C September average high, but current conditions feature cooler maritime air advection and cloud cover that suppress warming, consistent with observed highs of 12–15°C in the prior week. Model consensus highlights modest uncertainty from exact timing of frontal passage and wind strength, which could allow brief clearing to push readings toward 15°C or keep them nearer 13°C. Upcoming official MetService updates and refined model runs in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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