Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a September 20 high near 29–30 °C in Shanghai, driven by northerly flow, clearing skies after showers on the 19th, and moderate subsidence that limits further warming. Dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and winds of 8–10 mph from the north are expected to keep peak readings from climbing higher, consistent with late-September climatology where daily maxima average 28–30 °C. Market-implied odds favoring 29 °C reflect this model consensus, while the modest probability on 30 °C captures residual uncertainty in afternoon mixing and any last-minute shift in steering patterns. Updated runs and official observations on the 20th will determine the exact maximum used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 20?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 20?
29°C 60%
28°C 25%
30°C 15%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
25%
29°C
60%
30°C
15%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 60%
28°C 25%
30°C 15%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
$144 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$54 Vol.
5%
28°C
$382 Vol.
25%
29°C
$564 Vol.
60%
30°C
$61 Vol.
15%
31°C
$90 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$59 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$203 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a September 20 high near 29–30 °C in Shanghai, driven by northerly flow, clearing skies after showers on the 19th, and moderate subsidence that limits further warming. Dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and winds of 8–10 mph from the north are expected to keep peak readings from climbing higher, consistent with late-September climatology where daily maxima average 28–30 °C. Market-implied odds favoring 29 °C reflect this model consensus, while the modest probability on 30 °C captures residual uncertainty in afternoon mixing and any last-minute shift in steering patterns. Updated runs and official observations on the 20th will determine the exact maximum used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,702End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a September 20 high near 29–30 °C in Shanghai, driven by northerly flow, clearing skies after showers on the 19th, and moderate subsidence that limits further warming. Dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and winds of 8–10 mph from the north are expected to keep peak readings from climbing higher, consistent with late-September climatology where daily maxima average 28–30 °C. Market-implied odds favoring 29 °C reflect this model consensus, while the modest probability on 30 °C captures residual uncertainty in afternoon mixing and any last-minute shift in steering patterns. Updated runs and official observations on the 20th will determine the exact maximum used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,702End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles point to a September 20 high near 29–30 °C in Shanghai, driven by northerly flow, clearing skies after showers on the 19th, and moderate subsidence that limits further warming. Dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and winds of 8–10 mph from the north are expected to keep peak readings from climbing higher, consistent with late-September climatology where daily maxima average 28–30 °C. Market-implied odds favoring 29 °C reflect this model consensus, while the modest probability on 30 °C captures residual uncertainty in afternoon mixing and any last-minute shift in steering patterns. Updated runs and official observations on the 20th will determine the exact maximum used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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