Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Shanghai will see partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds on September 20, supporting an overnight minimum near 22–23°C with limited radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from multiple sources cluster in this range, consistent with late-September climatology for the region under stable high pressure. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C as the daily low likely reflect trader weighting of ensemble means or slight upward revisions in the latest model guidance, while lower probabilities on 21–22°C account for potential observational variance at official stations. Resolution hinges on verified minimum readings from local meteorological networks, with no major synoptic shifts expected in the final 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 20?
24°C 62%
25°C 25%
23°C 14%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
19%
22°C
8%
23°C
14%
24°C
62%
25°C
25%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 62%
25°C 25%
23°C 14%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$133 Vol.
19%
22°C
$329 Vol.
8%
23°C
$412 Vol.
14%
24°C
$1,138 Vol.
62%
25°C
$674 Vol.
25%
26°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$47 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Shanghai will see partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds on September 20, supporting an overnight minimum near 22–23°C with limited radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from multiple sources cluster in this range, consistent with late-September climatology for the region under stable high pressure. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C as the daily low likely reflect trader weighting of ensemble means or slight upward revisions in the latest model guidance, while lower probabilities on 21–22°C account for potential observational variance at official stations. Resolution hinges on verified minimum readings from local meteorological networks, with no major synoptic shifts expected in the final 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,971End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Shanghai will see partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds on September 20, supporting an overnight minimum near 22–23°C with limited radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from multiple sources cluster in this range, consistent with late-September climatology for the region under stable high pressure. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C as the daily low likely reflect trader weighting of ensemble means or slight upward revisions in the latest model guidance, while lower probabilities on 21–22°C account for potential observational variance at official stations. Resolution hinges on verified minimum readings from local meteorological networks, with no major synoptic shifts expected in the final 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,971End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Shanghai will see partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds on September 20, supporting an overnight minimum near 22–23°C with limited radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from multiple sources cluster in this range, consistent with late-September climatology for the region under stable high pressure. Market-implied odds favoring 24°C as the daily low likely reflect trader weighting of ensemble means or slight upward revisions in the latest model guidance, while lower probabilities on 21–22°C account for potential observational variance at official stations. Resolution hinges on verified minimum readings from local meteorological networks, with no major synoptic shifts expected in the final 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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