Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 75–76°F in Los Angeles on September 21, with morning marine-layer clouds giving way to sun and southwest winds around 15 mph. This pattern, reinforced by onshore flow and a modest marine layer typical for mid-September, keeps readings below the seasonal average of roughly 82°F and explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities on the 74–77°F outcomes. Minor differences among forecasts hinge on exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and whether the high reaches the low 80s or stays capped in the mid-70s; updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow that spread ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 21?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 21?
74-75°F 45%
76-77°F 41%
72-73°F 10%
80-81°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
43%
76-77°F
41%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
3%
84°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 45%
76-77°F 41%
72-73°F 10%
80-81°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
65°F or below
$135 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$125 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$34 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$130 Vol.
43%
76-77°F
$2,233 Vol.
41%
78-79°F
$83 Vol.
8%
80-81°F
$15 Vol.
9%
82-83°F
$55 Vol.
3%
84°F or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 75–76°F in Los Angeles on September 21, with morning marine-layer clouds giving way to sun and southwest winds around 15 mph. This pattern, reinforced by onshore flow and a modest marine layer typical for mid-September, keeps readings below the seasonal average of roughly 82°F and explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities on the 74–77°F outcomes. Minor differences among forecasts hinge on exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and whether the high reaches the low 80s or stays capped in the mid-70s; updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow that spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,941End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 75–76°F in Los Angeles on September 21, with morning marine-layer clouds giving way to sun and southwest winds around 15 mph. This pattern, reinforced by onshore flow and a modest marine layer typical for mid-September, keeps readings below the seasonal average of roughly 82°F and explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities on the 74–77°F outcomes. Minor differences among forecasts hinge on exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and whether the high reaches the low 80s or stays capped in the mid-70s; updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow that spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,941End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 75–76°F in Los Angeles on September 21, with morning marine-layer clouds giving way to sun and southwest winds around 15 mph. This pattern, reinforced by onshore flow and a modest marine layer typical for mid-September, keeps readings below the seasonal average of roughly 82°F and explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities on the 74–77°F outcomes. Minor differences among forecasts hinge on exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and whether the high reaches the low 80s or stays capped in the mid-70s; updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow that spread ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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