**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on September 21 project afternoon highs in the upper 80s amid scattered thunderstorms, cloud cover, and southerly flow.** Persistent moisture and convective activity will cap daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of around 86°F. Model consensus shows limited clearing windows that could allow brief spikes toward 88–89°F, while stronger or earlier storms favor 86–87°F outcomes. This narrow range of uncertainty, combined with typical late-September instability patterns, explains the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the 86–91°F bins and the modest premium on the 88–89°F bucket. Updated model runs and NHC guidance on any tropical moisture surges remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 21?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 21?
88-89°F 38%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 25%
84-85°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
25%
88-89°F
38%
90-91°F
30%
92-93°F
2%
94°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 38%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 25%
84-85°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
75°F or below
$45 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$65 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$52 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$70 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$138 Vol.
25%
88-89°F
$229 Vol.
38%
90-91°F
$2,251 Vol.
30%
92-93°F
$179 Vol.
2%
94°F or higher
$8 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on September 21 project afternoon highs in the upper 80s amid scattered thunderstorms, cloud cover, and southerly flow.** Persistent moisture and convective activity will cap daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of around 86°F. Model consensus shows limited clearing windows that could allow brief spikes toward 88–89°F, while stronger or earlier storms favor 86–87°F outcomes. This narrow range of uncertainty, combined with typical late-September instability patterns, explains the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the 86–91°F bins and the modest premium on the 88–89°F bucket. Updated model runs and NHC guidance on any tropical moisture surges remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,036End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on September 21 project afternoon highs in the upper 80s amid scattered thunderstorms, cloud cover, and southerly flow.** Persistent moisture and convective activity will cap daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of around 86°F. Model consensus shows limited clearing windows that could allow brief spikes toward 88–89°F, while stronger or earlier storms favor 86–87°F outcomes. This narrow range of uncertainty, combined with typical late-September instability patterns, explains the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the 86–91°F bins and the modest premium on the 88–89°F bucket. Updated model runs and NHC guidance on any tropical moisture surges remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,036End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on September 21 project afternoon highs in the upper 80s amid scattered thunderstorms, cloud cover, and southerly flow.** Persistent moisture and convective activity will cap daytime heating by reducing solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of around 86°F. Model consensus shows limited clearing windows that could allow brief spikes toward 88–89°F, while stronger or earlier storms favor 86–87°F outcomes. This narrow range of uncertainty, combined with typical late-September instability patterns, explains the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the 86–91°F bins and the modest premium on the 88–89°F bucket. Updated model runs and NHC guidance on any tropical moisture surges remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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