Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a mild overnight low near 10–11°C for Toronto on September 21, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with limited radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with historical averages around 12.7°C and keeps extremes unlikely, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could alter the minimum by a few degrees. Trader sentiment remains split near 50% between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes, reflecting model spread and the narrow resolution windows typical for single-day temperature markets. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 21?
4°C or below 98%
14°C or higher 98%
9°C 40%
5°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
4°C or below
98%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
40%
10°C
22%
11°C
21%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C or higher
98%
4°C or below 98%
14°C or higher 98%
9°C 40%
5°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a mild overnight low near 10–11°C for Toronto on September 21, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with limited radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with historical averages around 12.7°C and keeps extremes unlikely, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could alter the minimum by a few degrees. Trader sentiment remains split near 50% between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes, reflecting model spread and the narrow resolution windows typical for single-day temperature markets. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a mild overnight low near 10–11°C for Toronto on September 21, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with limited radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with historical averages around 12.7°C and keeps extremes unlikely, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could alter the minimum by a few degrees. Trader sentiment remains split near 50% between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes, reflecting model spread and the narrow resolution windows typical for single-day temperature markets. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a mild overnight low near 10–11°C for Toronto on September 21, driven by northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with limited radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with historical averages around 12.7°C and keeps extremes unlikely, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could alter the minimum by a few degrees. Trader sentiment remains split near 50% between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes, reflecting model spread and the narrow resolution windows typical for single-day temperature markets. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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