Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–32°C range on September 20 under a persistent upper-level anticyclone that favors sunny periods, light easterly winds, and dry daytime conditions across the territory. Ensemble model outputs show modest spread, with some projecting a brief afternoon peak near 33°C before isolated showers develop later, while others cap the maximum closer to 30–31°C depending on cloud cover and timing of any seabreeze effects. Historical September climatology centers near 30–31°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 20?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 20?
32°C 35%
31°C 34%
33°C 16%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
10%
30°C
10%
31°C
34%
32°C
35%
33°C
16%
34°C
12%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 35%
31°C 34%
33°C 16%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
26°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$68 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
10%
30°C
$17 Vol.
10%
31°C
$176 Vol.
34%
32°C
$327 Vol.
35%
33°C
$36 Vol.
16%
34°C
$0 Vol.
12%
35°C
$0 Vol.
4%
36°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–32°C range on September 20 under a persistent upper-level anticyclone that favors sunny periods, light easterly winds, and dry daytime conditions across the territory. Ensemble model outputs show modest spread, with some projecting a brief afternoon peak near 33°C before isolated showers develop later, while others cap the maximum closer to 30–31°C depending on cloud cover and timing of any seabreeze effects. Historical September climatology centers near 30–31°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$996End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–32°C range on September 20 under a persistent upper-level anticyclone that favors sunny periods, light easterly winds, and dry daytime conditions across the territory. Ensemble model outputs show modest spread, with some projecting a brief afternoon peak near 33°C before isolated showers develop later, while others cap the maximum closer to 30–31°C depending on cloud cover and timing of any seabreeze effects. Historical September climatology centers near 30–31°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$996End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–32°C range on September 20 under a persistent upper-level anticyclone that favors sunny periods, light easterly winds, and dry daytime conditions across the territory. Ensemble model outputs show modest spread, with some projecting a brief afternoon peak near 33°C before isolated showers develop later, while others cap the maximum closer to 30–31°C depending on cloud cover and timing of any seabreeze effects. Historical September climatology centers near 30–31°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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