Trader consensus has coalesced around an 18°C minimum for São Paulo on September 21, reflected in the 95% implied probability for that outcome. Official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies such as INMET showed clear skies with overnight radiative cooling under light northerly winds, producing a recorded low near 18–19°C amid seasonal early-spring conditions. This aligns with recent regional patterns of above-average minimums for late September, where typical lows range 12–16°C but warmer advection limited further drops. Scenarios that could shift resolution include revised station data revealing a brief dip to 17°C or measurement discrepancies at official sites, though post-event verification has reinforced the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 21?
18°C 100%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$804 Vol.
$804 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
18°C 100%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$804 Vol.
$804 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
16°C or below
$15 Vol.
No
17°C
$25 Vol.
No
18°C
$205 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$238 Vol.
No
20°C
$190 Vol.
No
21°C
$51 Vol.
No
22°C
$15 Vol.
No
23°C
$15 Vol.
No
24°C
$15 Vol.
No
25°C
$15 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$20 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has coalesced around an 18°C minimum for São Paulo on September 21, reflected in the 95% implied probability for that outcome. Official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies such as INMET showed clear skies with overnight radiative cooling under light northerly winds, producing a recorded low near 18–19°C amid seasonal early-spring conditions. This aligns with recent regional patterns of above-average minimums for late September, where typical lows range 12–16°C but warmer advection limited further drops. Scenarios that could shift resolution include revised station data revealing a brief dip to 17°C or measurement discrepancies at official sites, though post-event verification has reinforced the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$804End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has coalesced around an 18°C minimum for São Paulo on September 21, reflected in the 95% implied probability for that outcome. Official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies such as INMET showed clear skies with overnight radiative cooling under light northerly winds, producing a recorded low near 18–19°C amid seasonal early-spring conditions. This aligns with recent regional patterns of above-average minimums for late September, where typical lows range 12–16°C but warmer advection limited further drops. Scenarios that could shift resolution include revised station data revealing a brief dip to 17°C or measurement discrepancies at official sites, though post-event verification has reinforced the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$804End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has coalesced around an 18°C minimum for São Paulo on September 21, reflected in the 95% implied probability for that outcome. Official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies such as INMET showed clear skies with overnight radiative cooling under light northerly winds, producing a recorded low near 18–19°C amid seasonal early-spring conditions. This aligns with recent regional patterns of above-average minimums for late September, where typical lows range 12–16°C but warmer advection limited further drops. Scenarios that could shift resolution include revised station data revealing a brief dip to 17°C or measurement discrepancies at official sites, though post-event verification has reinforced the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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