Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 23, with highs most likely in the mid- to upper 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies after morning patchy fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer have kept recent readings cooler than normal, but a building ridge and lighter winds are expected to allow greater solar heating and reduced cloud cover. Model consensus centers near the long-term average high of 71°F yet shows spread tied to exact sea-breeze timing and fog dissipation; stronger westerlies could cap readings in the low 70s while weaker flow supports upper 70s to low 80s. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily, with the tight clustering around 76–79°F reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer details two days out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
78-79°F 28%
74-75°F 23%
76-77°F 23%
80-81°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
8%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
6%
90°F or higher
5%
78-79°F 28%
74-75°F 23%
76-77°F 23%
80-81°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
23%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$516 Vol.
22%
82-83°F
$719 Vol.
12%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
9%
88-89°F
$10 Vol.
6%
90°F or higher
$10 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 23, with highs most likely in the mid- to upper 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies after morning patchy fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer have kept recent readings cooler than normal, but a building ridge and lighter winds are expected to allow greater solar heating and reduced cloud cover. Model consensus centers near the long-term average high of 71°F yet shows spread tied to exact sea-breeze timing and fog dissipation; stronger westerlies could cap readings in the low 70s while weaker flow supports upper 70s to low 80s. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily, with the tight clustering around 76–79°F reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer details two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,276End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 23, with highs most likely in the mid- to upper 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies after morning patchy fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer have kept recent readings cooler than normal, but a building ridge and lighter winds are expected to allow greater solar heating and reduced cloud cover. Model consensus centers near the long-term average high of 71°F yet shows spread tied to exact sea-breeze timing and fog dissipation; stronger westerlies could cap readings in the low 70s while weaker flow supports upper 70s to low 80s. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily, with the tight clustering around 76–79°F reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer details two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,276End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 23, with highs most likely in the mid- to upper 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies after morning patchy fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer have kept recent readings cooler than normal, but a building ridge and lighter winds are expected to allow greater solar heating and reduced cloud cover. Model consensus centers near the long-term average high of 71°F yet shows spread tied to exact sea-breeze timing and fog dissipation; stronger westerlies could cap readings in the low 70s while weaker flow supports upper 70s to low 80s. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily, with the tight clustering around 76–79°F reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer details two days out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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